20231014-东吴证券-煤炭开采行业跟踪周报_供需格局向偏宽松演化_煤价预计承压震荡_10页_678kb

Summary: Coal Mining Industry Tracking Report

Key Analysis

• 动力煤市场: Safety inspections easing supports supply recovery, but weak demand from power generation leads to a bearish outlook. Coal prices are expected to face downward pressure and oscillations due to evolving supply-demand dynamics, with recent price increases moderating.
• 炼焦煤市场: Lignite prices remain steady, with limited upside potential as iron water production may peak due to annual steel production caps. Price stability is observed, citing supply recovery from mine incidents and stable terminal demand.
• 市场表现: The coal mining sector experienced a 13.4% week-over-week decline, influenced by broader market pullbacks in indices like the SSE Composite. Individual stocks showed mixed performance, with some gaining due to supply factors and others losing amid operational issues.
• 估值和建议: Maintain "增持" (Hold) rating; recommended focuses on high-dividend stocks like潞安环能 (Luzhou Coal Energy) and陕西煤业 (Shaanxi Coal Industry) for stability, along with broad-based growth options and国企改革受益标的.
• 风险提示: Downside risks include slower economic recovery leading to weaker power and steel demand, or unexpected supply surges from government support measures that could trigger significant coal price declines.

Data Highlights

• Supply side recovery post-inspections, demand side weakness persists.
• Inventory levels increasing, impacting price pressures.
• International comparisons show stabilizing trends in coal pricing.

Recommendations and Outlook

The report advises focusing on stable, high-dividend companies and monitoring reforms for potential gains, with an emphasis on risk management due to demand uncertainties.