20150901-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_833kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - September 1, 2015

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the financial performance and market outlook for various sectors and companies in the Philippines as of August 28, 2015. It includes market data, analyst insights, and investment recommendations.

Key Financial Data

Index/Stock	Value	% Change
PSEi	7,098.81	1.09
Turnover (PHPm)	11,260.39	(22.80)
PLDT ADR (USD)	52.69	0.67
PLDT ADR (PHP)	2,460.83	0.63
Ave interbank rate	2.50	0 bps
PHP/USD rate	46.70	0.00

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo – Head of Research / Economist
Ramon Adviento – (63) 28498845 – ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com
Michael Bengson – (63) 28498840 – michael_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Rommel Rodrigo – (632) 849 8839 – rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com
Lovell Sarreal – (632) 849 8841 – lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com
Katherine Tan – (632) 849 8843 – kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com

Top Idea: Property Sector

Core Content

1H15 Net Income Growth: The property sector's net income grew by 15% YoY to PHP35b, maintaining the growth from 1Q15.
Leading Companies: Ayala Land Inc (ALI) and SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH) led the growth with 19% and 16.7% profit increases, respectively, contributing to 56% of the sector's net income.
Segment Growth:
- Residential: 9% revenue growth due to higher base effect.
- Retail/Mall: 10% growth driven by same-store sales, increased rental rates, and more mall space.
- Office: 22% growth due to additional office space, higher rental rates, and occupancy.
- Hotel: 9% growth from sustained average revenue per available room.

Investment View

Overweight: The sector is maintained at OVERWEIGHT due to strong demand across all segments.
Recommendations:
- BUY: ALI, FLI, MEG, and VLL.
- HOLD: SMPH and RLC, as their share prices have held up well.
Top Pick: ALI for its strong performance across all business segments.

Market Talk

Banks

Loan growth eased to 13.5% in July, down from 14.5% in June.
Strong growth came from:
- Accommodation and food services (+37.3%)
- Wholesale and retail trade (+15.2%)
- Real estate activities (+16.4%)
Deceleration in:
- Electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (+27.8% from +28.9%)
- Construction (+24.6% from +28.9%)
- Financial and insurance activities (+10.7% from +14.4%)
Manufacturing: Grew only 4.5%, down from 8.6% in June.
Household Consumption: Loan growth eased to 13.7% from 14.9%.
Auto and Salary Loans: Rose by 27.1% and 37.6%, respectively.
Credit Card Receivables: Steady at 5.9% increase.
Other Household Loans: Fell by 15.4%.

Conglomerates

Telstra Corp: In talks with San Miguel Corp for a joint venture in the Philippines, no agreements yet.
Quezon Coal Plant: PHP40b loan is almost finalized for a 455MW coal plant.
TA: Withdrew bid for geothermal plants due to higher costs and preference for coal.

Telcos

LTFRB: Pilot testing GPS on buses using PLDT SME Nation's Track and Trace solution.
PLDT: Partnering with De Guia Enterprises Inc for GPS installation on G Liner buses.

Oil

PNX: Secured an Aa minus credit rating, supporting its network expansion.

The Week Ahead

September 4: Federal Resources Investment Group, Inc; Acesite (Philippines) Hotel Corporation
September 10: IRC Properties, Inc; Mabuhay Holdings Corporation
Events: Annual Stockholders' Meetings for the listed companies

Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 28 August 2015)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rating	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	98.50	123.00	25	BUY	1.04	24.5	34.4	0.29	0.8	7.04	4.8	89.8	4.1	14.4
BPI	84.60	94.00	11	HOLD	1.16	1.8	25.1	0.36	1.2	12.03	2.3	41.7	5.3	10.5
CHIB	42.50	47.00	11	HOLD	2.85	5.9	14.9	1.00	2.4	29.02	2.4	89.8	4.1	14.4
EW	20.80	27.00	30	BUY	1.84	6.4	17.0	0.07	1.6	2.57	3.2	89.8	4.1	14.4
MBT	83.75	100.00	19	BUY	7.15	10.9	11.7	1.00	1.2	5.48	3.7	10.9	4.7	14.0
PBB	18.68	19.00	2	HOLD	4.52	12.8	23.4	0.30	0.9	12.38	2.6	13.9	4.5	13.8
PNX	31.70	47.50	50	BUY	1.63	14.2	19.4	0.30	0.9	12.38	2.6	13.9	4.5	13.8
EMP	8.55	13.00	52	BUY	0.36	12.8	23.4	0.15	1.7	2.70	3.2	4.5	9.8	16.2
PGOLD	31.70	47.50	50	BUY	1.63	14.2	19.4	0.30	0.9	12.38	2.6	13.9	4.5	13.8
RCB	35.00	62.00	77	BUY	0.24	15.8	9.4	0.05	2.7	2.02	0.8	23.6	4.5	9.1
SECB	20.80	27.00	30	BUY	1.84	6.1	11.3	-	-	19.01	1.1	10.2	1.3	10.2
ALI	35.95	48.60	35	BUY	1.04	24.5	34.4	0.29	0.8	7.04	4.8	89.8	4.1	14.4
FLI	1.79	2.40	34	BUY	0.19	15.8	9.4	0.05	2.7	2.02	0.8	23.6	4.5	9.1
MEG	4.33	7.10	64	BUY	0.29	17.1	14.8	0.02	0.5	3.17	1.1	6.3	4.7	8.1
RLC	29.00	31.00	7	HOLD	1.16	1.8	25.1	0.36	1.2	12.03	2.3	0.3	5.9	9.3
VLL	5.83	8.40	44	BUY	0.67	12.7	8.7	0.10	2.0	5.68	0.9	66.9	6.0	11.2
SMPH	19.50	22.00	13	HOLD	0.69	8.5	28.5	0.18	1.0	5.88	2.7	41.7	5.0	10.9
EDC	6.00	7.35	23	BUY	0.49	40.1	12.2	0.20	3.3	2.25	2.7	109.0	8.0	24.1
FGEN	23.35	31.30	34	BUY	2.27	(10.1)	19.1	1.66	3.8	12.50	3.5	2.9	8.1	18.6
AP	43.25	46.60	8	HOLD	2.48	9.3	17.4	1.66	3.8	13.60	3.2	15.0	7.7	19.0

Summary of Key Insights

Property Sector: Strong growth in 2Q15, with ALI and SMPH leading the performance.
Banks: Loan growth eased in July, with mixed sector performance.
Conglomerates: Telstra Corp in talks with San Miguel Corp for a mobile venture.
Utilities: PHP40b loan for Quezon coal plant is almost finalized; TA withdraws bid for geothermal plants.
Telcos: PLDT units pilot GPS on buses.
Oil: PNX secures Aa minus rating, indicating strong financial capacity.
Investment Recommendations: Several companies are recommended as BUY or HOLD based on performance and growth potential.