2015年-世界发展银行全球_Remittances_and_the_Economic_Crisis___Evidence_from_the_Greenback_20_Survey_in_Italy_27页_3mb

Summary of "Remittances and the economic crisis: evidence from the Greenback 2.0 survey in Italy"

Core Content

This working paper examines the impact of the 2008 economic crisis on the income and remittance trends of three migrant groups in Turin: Moroccans, Peruvians, and Romanians. It highlights how economic instability affects migrant labor market integration and remittance behaviors, with a focus on both supply and demand-side factors.

Main Points

• Economic Crisis Impact on Migrants:
  The economic crisis significantly affected migrant employment and income in Italy, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and construction. Male migrants were more severely impacted than female migrants, with employment rates dropping by 14% for men and 3.4% for women between 2008 and 2013. Female employment growth in 2013 was largely responsible for maintaining some level of employment stability.

• Income Trends:
  The average income for migrants in Italy declined over the period, with the income gap between migrants and Italian workers widening. The net monthly salary for migrants was lower than that of Italian workers, and the share of migrants in qualified jobs decreased from 8.2% in 2008 to 5.9% in 2012. The proportion of "over-educated" migrants increased, indicating a mismatch between their qualifications and job roles.

• Remittance Trends:
  Despite economic hardship, migrants continued to send remittances to their home countries. However, the crisis led to a decline in remittance flows, with the total amount sent from Italy decreasing by 14% between 2008 and 2013. The decline varied by migrant group, with Moroccans showing a higher propensity to receive remittances, while Peruvians were more resistant to a drop in remittances.

• Factors Influencing Remittances:
  The paper suggests that remittance behaviors are influenced not only by economic conditions but also by household characteristics in both the destination and origin countries. Additionally, unobserved variables such as distance and social networks play a role in shaping remittance patterns.

Key Findings

• Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics:

  • The sample is relatively gender-balanced overall, but there are significant gender differences within each group. Women make up a larger proportion of the Romanian and Peruvian samples, while Moroccans are predominantly male.
  • Peruvians have the highest level of education, followed by Romanians, while Moroccans have the lowest.
  • The average length of stay in Italy is highest for Moroccans, and they have the lowest annual income and remittance levels.
  • The remittance to income ratio varies significantly across groups, with female Peruvian migrants having the highest ratio (21.5%) and male Romanian migrants the lowest (12.7%).

• Household Dynamics:

  • The proportion of single-income households increased, with the single-breadwinner model still dominant among migrants.
  • In northern Italy, female breadwinners became more common as male employment declined.
  • The number of households with no income from work or pension increased from 98,000 in 2008 to 311,000 in 2013, reflecting a worsening of economic conditions for migrant families.

• Methodology and Data:

  • The analysis is based on the Greenback 2.0 survey, which collected data on migrant characteristics, job integration, and remittance behavior.
  • The survey included 480 individuals, with a focus on those who had sent remittances to their home countries since the beginning of 2013.
  • A center sampling technique was used to ensure a balanced representation, including both legal and illegal migrants.

• Conclusion:
  The economic crisis had a significant impact on migrant income and remittance behaviors, but the effects were not uniform across all groups. The paper underscores the importance of considering both economic and non-economic factors when analyzing remittance trends.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Shows remittance outflows from Italy's first 8 provinces and total between 2005 and 2013, highlighting the decline in total remittances after 2011.
• Table 2: Lists the top three destination countries for remittances from each province in 2013, emphasizing China as the main recipient for most regions.
• Table 3: Provides demographic characteristics of the sample by country of origin, including sex, arrival in Italy, education, and marital status.
• Table 4: Summarizes economic characteristics of the sample, including age, length of stay, income, and remittances.
• Table 5: Reports the Chi-squared test results confirming a strong correlation between income and remittance trends by sex.
• Table 6 and 7: Present odds ratios for the likelihood of income and remittance decreases, respectively.
• Table 8: Displays marginal effects of predictors on the probability of remittance decrease.
• Table 9: Shows the results of the multinomial logit model for income trends.
• Figure 1: Compares the foreign resident population and remittances in Italy from 2005 to 2013, with a break in the series in 2011.
• Figure 2: Illustrates remittances from the Province of Turin to the top three destination countries between 2005 and 2013.
• Figure 3 and 4: Present predictive margins for remittance trends, stratified by sex and other variables.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that the economic crisis has had a profound effect on migrant income and remittance behaviors in Italy. While migrants generally continue to send money home, the crisis has led to a reduction in remittance flows, especially among certain groups. The study emphasizes the importance of both economic and social factors in understanding these trends and suggests that future research should explore the role of unobserved variables in shaping migrant remittance behaviors.