亚开行-《亚洲发展展望》（ADO）2023年7月：强劲增长与适度通货膨胀（英）-2023.7-10页_211kb

Summary of Asian Economic Outlook - July 2023

Growth Forecasts

• Developing Asia: Overall growth projected at 4.8% for 2023, revised down marginally to 4.7% for 2024.
  • East Asia: Growth maintained at 4.6% for 2023 and 4.2% for 2024.
  • South Asia: Forecast at 5.5% for 2023, up to 6.1% for 2024.
  • Southeast Asia: Slightly downgraded to 4.6% for 2023 and 4.9% for 2024.
  • Caucasus and Central Asia: Adjusted down to 4.3% for 2023 and 4.4% for 2024 due to weaker oil production.
  • The Pacific: Unchanged at 3.3% for 2023 and 2.8% for 2024.

Inflation Trends

• Headline inflation has eased towards pre-pandemic levels due to declining fuel and food prices, amid moderate monetary tightening globally.
• Inflation moderating, with key subregions showing improvement, though core inflation remains elevated in some areas like East Asia.

Key Risks and Factors

• Global demand slowdown is impacting exports, particularly in manufactured goods.
• Upside risks include faster policy easing in major economies if inflation control is effective, while downside risks involve financial instability, geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine conflict), climate events (e.g., El Niño), and challenges in credit-risk economies.

Overall Outlook

• Growth is moderate but resilient, driven by domestic demand and services recoveries, though global uncertainties cap projections.
• Inflation is trending down, supporting easier monetary policies in many Asian central banks.