20150910-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_307kb
报告摘要
Daily Edge Summary - September 10, 2015
Core Content
The document provides a detailed market overview for the Philippines on September 10, 2015, focusing on the performance of key financial indicators and sector-specific insights, particularly in the mining and banking sectors. It also outlines upcoming events and company valuations.
Main Points
Market Performance
- PSEi Index: Closed at 6,942.47 with a 0.74% increase.
- Turnover: Reached 7,608.86 PHP million, showing a 60.70% increase.
- PLDT ADR (USD): Closed at 49.50 with a -1.37% change.
- PLDT ADR (PHP): Closed at 2,319.32 with a -1.53% change.
- Ave interbank rate: 2.53% with no change in basis points.
- PHP/USD rate: 46.82 with a 0.37% increase.
Analysts
- The report was prepared by the Maybank Research Team, including:
- Luz Lorenzo
- Michael Bengson
- Rommel Rodrigo
- Lovell Sarreal
- Katherine Tan
Top Idea: Mining Sector Under Stress
- The mining sector is rated Neutral due to HOLD ratings on AT, MARC, and PX.
- SCC and NIKL are the top performers with BUY ratings:
- SCC: Strong power generation business, expanding coal reserves, and power capacity to 1,600MW by 2018.
- NIKL: Most stable in weak commodity prices with the lowest costs and largest reserves among nickel miners.
- AT, MARC, and PX: Highly dependent on China, facing execution risks and permitting issues.
- China's Economic Slowdown: Is a key factor pushing down commodity prices and affecting the mining sector. A clear bottom needs to be established before sentiment improves.
Market Talk
- AC Energy Holdings Inc: Signed a deal for a 18MW solar power plant in Negros Oriental, with plans to expand to 40MW.
- SMC Global Power: Evaluating a 200MW and 500MW pumped-storage hydro projects in Akan and Aurora provinces, respectively, and participating in the privatization of two hydro power plants.
- LRMC: Disavowed an alleged PHP7.5b claim related to the LRT1 system, stating the claim was premature due to the lack of full system evaluation.
- BSP: Reported strong capitalization in the banking sector, with CAR at 15.07% and 16.10% for universal and commercial banks, respectively, in Q1 2015.
- Salary Loans: Renamed to "salary-based general-purpose consumption loans" with a maximum term of three years, extendable to five years. Banks have six months to comply with the new guidelines.
Key Information
Valuation Summary
| Stock | Mkt Cap (USDm) | Rating | Price (PHP) | TP (PHP) | Upside (%) | P/E 15E | P/E 16E | P/B 15E | P/B 16E | Div Yld 15E | Div Yld 16E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas Mining | 196.6 | HOLD | 4.51 | 5.37 | 19.1 | NM | 5.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 5.1 | - |
| Marcventures | 82.7 | HOLD | 2.11 | 2.91 | 37.9 | 13.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 10.9 | 3.8 |
| Nickel Asia | 1,265.9 | BUY | 8.00 | 10.66 | 33.3 | 15.8 | 10.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 6.7 |
| Philex Mining | 532.7 | HOLD | 5.12 | 5.72 | 11.7 | 18.8 | 14.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| Semirara | 2,960.5 | BUY | 131.00 | 175.62 | 34.1 | 16.8 | 13.4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
Earnings and Valuations Table
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Rec | Year | Net Profit (PHPm) | EPS (PHP) | EPS Growth (%) | PE (x) | DPS (PHP) | Yield (%) | BV/share (PHP) | P/BV (x) | Gearing (%) | ROA (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDO | 94.65 | 117.00 | 24 | BUY | 2014 | 22,466 | 6.27 | 0.9 | 15.1 | 2.10 | 2.2 | 48.56 | 1.9 | - | 1.3 | 13.5 |
| BPI | 85.95 | 94.00 | 9 | HOLD | 2014 | 18,039 | 4.62 | -10.9 | 18.6 | 0.91 | 1.1 | 36.64 | 2.3 | - | 1.4 | 14.5 |
| CHIB | 42.25 | 47.00 | 11 | HOLD | 2014 | 5,116 | 2.85 | -5.9 | 14.8 | 1.00 | 2.4 | 29.71 | 5.2 | - | 8.1 | 10.2 |
| EW | 20.30 | 27.00 | 33 | BUY | 2014 | 2,073 | 1.84 | 24.5 | 11.0 | - | - | 19.01 | 4.5 | - | 4.1 | 14.4 |
| MBT | 81.85 | 100.00 | 22 | BUY | 2014 | 19,614 | 7.15 | -10.9 | 11.5 | 1.00 | 1.2 | 50.49 | 2.2 | - | 13.8 | 13.0 |
| PBB | 18.56 | 19.00 | 2 | HOLD | 2014 | 4,740 | 1.11 | -52.8 | 16.8 | - | - | 17.25 | 4.9 | - | 1.3 | 14.5 |
| PNB | 57.10 | 77.00 | 35 | HOLD | 2014 | 5,359 | 4.34 | -8.5 | 13.2 | - | - | 66.02 | 0.9 | - | 5.3 | 6.1 |
| PGOLD | 31.70 | 47.50 | 50 | BUY | 2014 | 4,520 | 1.63 | 14.2 | 19.4 | 0.30 | 0.9 | 12.38 | 2.6 | - | 5.8 | 13.9 |
| EMP | 8.12 | 13.00 | 60 | BUY | 2014 | 6,204 | 0.36 | -6.1 | 22.2 | 0.15 | 1.8 | 5.68 | 3.0 | - | 6.9 | 16.2 |
The Week Ahead
- Annual Stockholders’ Meetings are scheduled for various companies throughout September, including:
- Sept 10: IRC Properties, Inc and Mabuhay Holdings Corporation
- Sept 12: Waterfront Philippines, Inc
- Sept 15: Alliance Global Group, Inc
- Sept 17: Filsyn Corporation
- Sept 24: Manila Broadcasting Company
- Sept 25: STI Education Systems Holdings, Inc
- Sept 30: PAL Holdings, Inc
Conclusion
The report highlights the ongoing stress in the mining sector due to China's economic slowdown, with SCC and NIKL being the most promising despite the overall sector sentiment. The banking sector maintains strong capitalization, with the BSP adjusting guidelines for salary loans. Upcoming shareholder meetings are noted, indicating potential activity and discussions in the market.
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