FRB年度报告-2015-annual-report_456页_4mb

2015 Annual Report Summary

Core Content

The 102nd Annual Report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System covers the operations and activities of the Federal Reserve System during the calendar year 2015. It provides an overview of the Federal Reserve's structure, monetary policy, financial stability, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs, and the financial performance and organization of the Federal Reserve Banks.

Main Sections and Key Information

1. Overview

• The Federal Reserve is a federal system composed of the Board of Governors and 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks.
• The Board of Governors, located in Washington, D.C., consists of seven members appointed by the President and has a 2,825-person staff.
• It plays a major role in supervising and regulating U.S. financial institutions, overseeing the payments system, and promoting consumer protection and community development.

2. Monetary Policy and Economic Developments

• The Federal Reserve Board submits semiannual monetary policy reports to Congress, which are included in this report.
• Labor Market: Continued improvement, with payroll employment increasing by about 225,000 per month since June 2015. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.3% in June 2015 to 4.9% in January 2016, reaching the median estimate of the FOMC for the long-run normal unemployment rate.
• Inflation: Remained below the FOMC's 2% target. The PCE price index rose by 0.5% over the 12 months ending in December 2015, while the PCE index excluding food and energy rose by 1.5%.
• GDP Growth: Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.25% in the second half of 2015, slower than the first half. Growth was supported by accommodative monetary policy, consumer confidence, and lower oil prices, but was held back by a stronger dollar and weak foreign economic activity.
• Federal Funds Rate: The FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 0.25%–0.5% in December 2015, after maintaining it near zero for seven years. The decision reflected confidence in labor market improvements and the expectation that inflation would return to 2% in the medium term.
• Monetary Policy Outlook: The FOMC anticipates gradual increases in the federal funds rate, as the neutral rate is expected to rise slowly over time. In the most recent Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), FOMC participants projected that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would remain below its long-run level through 2018.

3. Financial Stability

• The Federal Reserve monitors risks to financial stability and conducts macroprudential supervision of large, complex financial institutions.
• It engages in domestic and international cooperation and coordination to address systemic risks.

4. Supervision and Regulation

• The Board of Governors oversees the supervision and regulation of U.S. financial institutions and the payments system.
• It continues to implement the Dodd-Frank Act and other regulatory requirements.

5. Consumer and Community Affairs

• The Board supervises and examines financial institutions for consumer protection and fair lending practices.
• It also engages in consumer research and community development initiatives.

6. Federal Reserve Banks Operations

• The Federal Reserve Banks provide various services, including currency and coin distribution, fiscal agency functions, and financial services for the Treasury and other government agencies.
• They also conduct examinations, manage intraday credit, and operate in the context of the broader Federal Reserve System.

7. Other Federal Reserve Operations

• The report includes information on regulatory developments, compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act, and the Board's litigation activities.

8. Policy Actions and Litigation

• The Board outlines its policy actions, including new or amended rules and regulations.
• Litigation involving the Board is summarized in this section.

9. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

• The report includes detailed minutes from FOMC meetings held throughout 2015, providing insight into the Committee's deliberations and decisions.

10. Statistical Tables

• Section 11 includes 14 statistical tables with updated historical data on Federal Reserve operations and activities.

11. Audits and Reviews

• Section 12 details the various levels of audit and review conducted on the Federal Reserve System, including internal and external audits.

12. Budgets

• Section 13 presents the 2015 budgets and financial performance of the Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks.

13. Organization

• Section 14 outlines the structure and key officials of the Federal Reserve System, including the Board of Governors, FOMC members, and Federal Reserve Bank officers and directors.

Key Points and Views

• Labor Market: Continued improvement, but some slack likely remains, particularly in labor force participation and part-time employment.
• Inflation: Remained subdued due to falling oil prices, a stronger dollar, and weak global growth.
• Monetary Policy: The FOMC raised the federal funds rate in December 2015, signaling confidence in the labor market and inflation trends.
• Productivity Growth: Slowed significantly, with the business sector's labor productivity increasing at just 0.5% in 2015 and an average of 1% since 2007.
• Financial Stability: The U.S. financial system remained resilient to recent stresses, with high regulatory capital ratios and liquid assets in large banking firms.
• Consumer Credit: Access to credit was mixed, with mortgages and credit cards still difficult for some borrowers, while student and auto loans remained broadly available.
• Oil Prices and Dollar Appreciation: Played a significant role in suppressing inflation, with oil prices falling to levels last seen over a decade ago and the dollar appreciating.

Conclusion

The 2015 Annual Report provides a comprehensive overview of the Federal Reserve's operations, highlighting key developments in monetary policy, financial stability, supervision, and regulation. It underscores the gradual improvement in the labor market and the subdued inflation environment, while also noting the continued challenges in productivity growth and the influence of global factors on domestic economic conditions.