2018年-尼尔森日本_ニールセン_消費者景況感調査2016年第1四半期の調査結果を発表_23页_841kb

2016 Q1 Consumer Confidence Summary

Core Content

The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index for Q1 2016 showed a slight increase of one point to 98, remaining below the optimism baseline of 100. Confidence levels varied significantly across regions, with some countries showing improvement while others experienced declines. The report highlights that the reasons for these changes are market-specific and influenced by economic, political, and social factors.

Main Regions and Trends

North America

• United States: Consumer confidence remained strong at 110, above the optimism baseline for nine consecutive quarters. Confidence in personal finances, job prospects, and spending intentions increased, with a notable rise in discretionary spending.
• Canada: Confidence dropped six points to 93, driven by a decline in job outlook and personal finance sentiment. Despite this, consumer packaged goods sales reached a five-year high.

Europe

• The majority of European markets saw a decline in confidence, but Spain and Portugal showed marked improvements, rising two and five points respectively.
• United Kingdom: Confidence declined four points to 97, with concerns about terrorism, immigration, and the upcoming Brexit referendum affecting sentiment.
• Germany: Confidence fell one point to 97, with rising concerns about terrorism and immigration.
• France and Italy: Confidence dropped significantly, with France falling 10 points to 64 and Italy 2 points to 59. Job sentiment and personal finance outlook deteriorated.
• Russia: Confidence declined 11 points to 63, with all three confidence indicators reaching their lowest levels in Nielsen's history. Consumers are increasingly cautious due to low oil prices and economic stress.
• Other Markets: Confidence declined in 17 of 34 European markets, with some like the Netherlands and Estonia showing sharp drops.

Asia-Pacific

• India and Indonesia were the standout markets, with confidence rising three and two points respectively. All three confidence indicators (job prospects, personal finances, and spending intentions) improved.
• Philippines and Vietnam also showed positive trends, with confidence increasing.
• Hong Kong and Japan: Confidence declined, with job sentiment and personal finance outlook dropping significantly. In China, confidence edged down two points, with job sentiment at its lowest since 2010.
• Australia: Confidence dropped seven points to 89, with all three indicators declining. Australians are more concerned about the economy than terrorism or utility costs.

Latin America

• Confidence declined in six of seven markets, with Brazil seeing its lowest score in Nielsen's history (74). Job prospects and spending intentions worsened.
• Argentina and Colombia had sharp declines in confidence, with Argentina falling 13 points and Colombia 11 points.
• Chile was the only market in the region with a slight increase in confidence, rising one point to 80.

Middle East and Africa

• UAE and Saudi Arabia: Confidence remained above the baseline but declined from the previous quarter. Both countries are heavily affected by oil price weakness.
• South Africa: Confidence dropped seven points to 75, with job prospects and personal finance sentiment also declining.
• Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana: These countries use a mobile survey methodology and are not included in the global index. Nigeria saw a seven-point drop in confidence, while Kenya and Ghana showed mixed trends, with Kenya improving and Ghana remaining stable.

Key Findings

• Global Trends: Consumer confidence remained stable but below the optimism baseline. Divergent trends were observed across regions, with some markets showing resilience and others facing significant challenges.
• Market-Specific Factors: Confidence changes were influenced by local conditions, including economic performance, political instability, and external shocks such as terrorism and geopolitical events.
• Recessionary Sentiment: 60% of global respondents believed their country's economy was in recession, up from 55% in the previous quarter. This sentiment was particularly strong in Estonia, Colombia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Norway, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia.
• Debt and Savings: Both the U.S. and Canada saw increased intentions to pay down debts and save for retirement, indicating a more cautious approach to personal finances.
• Methodology Note: The survey includes 63 countries using an online methodology, while Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana use mobile surveys, leading to different data interpretations.

Conclusion

The Q1 2016 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index reflects a mixed global picture, with some regions showing resilience and others facing declining confidence. The report emphasizes the importance of local economic and political factors in shaping consumer sentiment, and highlights the need for caution when comparing confidence levels across different markets due to varying survey methodologies and cultural reporting differences.