2009年-世界发展银行全球_Five_Decades_of_Distortions_to_Agricultural_Incentives_68页_838kb

Summary of "Five Decades of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives"

Core Content

This paper by Kym Anderson provides a comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy distortions over the past five decades, focusing on how these policies have affected global food prices, economic growth, and income distribution. It highlights the historical evolution of agricultural interventions in both developed and developing countries, and evaluates the impact of these policies on trade and market stability.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Impact of Agricultural Policies on Prices and Markets

• Agricultural price distortions, caused by trade policies and subsidies, significantly affect international food prices.
• These distortions contribute to market volatility, especially in weather-sensitive agricultural products.
• In the early 1980s, international food price instability was three times higher than it would have been under free trade, according to a stochastic model by Tyers and Anderson (1992).

2. Historical Trends in Agricultural Policy

• Developed Countries: Initially, they imposed export taxes to control food prices. Over time, they shifted to protectionist policies, particularly after the 1930s, which increased agricultural prices and reduced international trade.
• Japan: After the Meiji Restoration, Japan shifted from being a net exporter of food to a major importer of rice. This led to the imposition of high tariffs on rice imports, which distorted domestic prices and increased agricultural protection.
• Australia and New Zealand: Despite their strong comparative advantage in agriculture, these countries have historically imposed policies that discriminated against farmers, similar to developing countries.

3. Developing Countries' Agricultural Policies

• Many developing countries adopted import-substituting industrialization (ISI) strategies, which harmed agriculture by imposing export taxes and overvalued exchange rates.
• These policies indirectly taxed farmers and reduced their competitiveness, especially in the context of global trade.
• The study finds that direct disincentives (e.g., export taxes) were less significant than indirect ones (e.g., import protection and exchange rate policies) in shaping agricultural incentives up to the mid-1980s.

4. Policy Reforms in the Past 25 Years

• Over the past 25 years, many countries have initiated agricultural policy reforms, increasing the share of international trade in farm products.
• However, the pace of reform has not kept up with globalization in non-agricultural sectors, leading to continued distortions in some regions.

5. Methodology and Metrics

• The paper introduces the Nominal Rate of Assistance (NRA) and Consumer Tax Equivalent (CTE) to measure the extent of government interventions in agricultural markets.
• The Relative Rate of Assistance (RRA) compares the assistance given to agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, providing insights into policy bias.
• These metrics are calculated using the value of production at undistorted prices as weights, offering a more accurate picture of policy impacts than traditional OECD PSEs and CSEs.

6. Data Coverage and Scope

• The study covers 75 countries, representing 92% of the world's population and agricultural GDP, and 95% of total GDP.
• It includes 70+ products, with an average of 12 products per country.
• The time span covered is 1955–2007, with an average of 41 years of data per country.
• It provides detailed coverage of key agricultural products such as livestock, oilseeds, tropical crops, grains, and tubers, which together account for 77% of global output and 85% of global agricultural exports.

7. Policy Implications and Research Objectives

• The study aims to evaluate the extent to which policy reforms have reversed previous distortions.
• It explores the political economy forces behind successful versus unsuccessful reforms.
• It investigates the pattern of distortions across industries and the choice of support or tax instruments within each country's agricultural sector.
• It also seeks to provide policy lessons for future reforms in still-distorted economies, emphasizing the need for less overshooting and more growth-enhancing and poverty-reducing outcomes.

8. Timeliness of the Study

• The study is timely due to the ongoing Doha Round of WTO negotiations, where agricultural policy reform is a contentious issue.
• It also addresses the Millennium Development Goals, particularly the reduction of hunger and poverty.
• The 2008 food price spike underscores the importance of understanding effective policy responses to market volatility.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes that agricultural policy distortions have had long-term effects on global food prices, economic growth, and income inequality. It provides a detailed empirical analysis of these distortions across a wide range of countries and products, offering valuable insights for policymakers aiming to reduce agricultural market disarray and improve welfare outcomes. The methodology and metrics developed in the study are essential tools for evaluating the effectiveness of agricultural reforms and their impact on both domestic and international markets.