芬兰经济研究所-寻找即将到来的供应链惊喜：白俄罗斯、俄罗斯和乌克兰的世界出口市场份额（英）-2022.3-16页_362kb

报告摘要

Summary of "In Search of Upcoming Supply Chain Surprises: The World Export Market Shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine"

Core Content

This brief provides an analysis of the world export market shares of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine across over 5,000 commodities, using data from the World Bank's World Integrated Trade Solution. The goal is to identify potential supply chain disruptions that could emerge due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Main Points

Focus on Detailed Export Data: The analysis uses the Harmonized System (HS) codes, specifically the 6-digit level, to examine the global export market shares of the three countries.
Key Commodities: While crude oil and natural gas have been central in public discussion, the analysis highlights that foodstuffs and fertilizers are more critical for global supply chains.
High Market Shares in Specific Products:
- Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine account for 21% of global fertilizer exports.
- Together, they represent one-sixth of global cereal exports.
- They hold 70% of global sunflower oil exports and over 25% of colza and rape oil exports.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities:
- Certain narrow product categories are highly dependent on these three countries, such as specific types of fish and seafood.
- These products may cause significant disruptions in their respective supply chains if exports are halted.
Impact on Finland:
- Finland is highly exposed to the export disruptions from Russia, particularly in nickel, methanol, sawn wood, and crude oil.
- The import market share of these products from Russia to Finland is over 90% in some cases.
- Domestic supply is not considered in this brief, which is a major caveat, especially for products like wood.

Key Information

Substitution Potential: While some products have alternatives, others may not, especially if the substitutes also originate from the same countries.
Short-Term Assumption: The analysis assumes the cessation of all exports from the three countries in the short term, which is a pessimistic view to assess potential risks.
Global vs. National Perspective: A global market share may not reflect the significance of a product to a specific country. For example, Russia is a major supplier of raw materials and intermediates for Finland.
Timing of Substitution: Some industries may take 4-6 months to increase production capacity for critical goods like oil.
Risk Awareness: As supply chains reconfigure, customers will become more aware of the risks associated with international sourcing.

Methodology

Data Sources: The analysis is based on World Bank data, and the results are presented in both HS 2-digit and HS 6-digit levels.
Challenges:
- Aggregation vs. Detail: Detailed analysis reveals more nuanced market positions that aggregated data may miss.
- Market Share vs. Export Value: A product's importance is a function of both its market share and export value.
- Net Exports: The brief focuses on net exports, excluding domestic production.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine is causing significant disruptions in global supply chains, particularly in foodstuffs, fertilizers, and raw materials.
Russia's role is especially prominent, both in terms of its global export shares and Finnish import dependencies.
Supply chain resilience is crucial, and the ability to find substitutes will determine the severity of the impact.
The brief serves as a tool for identifying vulnerable supply chains, but it emphasizes the need for further analysis that includes domestic production and long-term substitution possibilities.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: The impact channels of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Figure 2: World export market shares of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine in selected HS2 categories.
Figure 3: World export market shares of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine in selected HS6 categories.
Figure 4: Import market shares of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine to Finland in selected HS6 categories.
Appendix Tables:
- Table A1: HS2 codes and descriptions for products in Figure 2.
- Table A2: HS6 codes and descriptions for products in Figure 3.

Authors and Funding

Authors: Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Johannes Hirvonen, and Petri Rouvinen.
Funding: The brief is part of the Company Resilience in the Era of Globalization research project, funded by Business Finland.

Key Words

Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Exports, Imports, Market Shares, Supply Chain, Dependency, Resilience, Fertilizers, Cereals, Nickel, Methanol, Wood, Crude Oil, Fish, Crustaceans, etc.