秘鲁经济展望-英-46页_2mb

Peru Economic Outlook - October 2023 Summary

Global Context:

• Global economy growth forecasts revised down to 2.9% for 2023 and 3.0% for 2024.
• Geopolitical tensions and cyclical slowdowns represent key risks. Key Risks: China's hard landing, US-China rivalry, Ukraine conflict, climate change.

Local Context:

• Economic activity weak due to multiple negative shocks: drought, fertilizer price hikes, political/social unrest, El Ni~no 2023 intensity, high inflation, financing costs.
• GDP contracted 0.5% YoY in Q2 2023 (vs. BBVA's June forecast of 1.6%). Growth forecast for 2023 revised down to 0.4%.
• Weak private spending, falling inventories, and declining business confidence drove GDP contraction.
• Informal employment marginally decreased (+0.2pp YoY vs Q1 2023), but total employed population fell by 163,000 compared to Q4 2022 levels.

Economic Forecasts:

• GDP: 0.4% YoY in 2023 (vs. previously 1.6%), revised down again in Q3. Forecasted 2.3% YoY in 2024 (vs. previously 2.6%).
• Inflation: YoY CPI at 5.0% in September. Forecase 4.1% end-2023, 2.8% end-2024.
• Monetary Policy: Central Bank cut policy rate to 7.50% in September 2023. Neutral rate now estimated at 4.50%.
• Fiscal Balance: Deficit estimated at 2.7% of GDP for 2023 (vs. 2.4% June forecast) and maintained at 2.7% for 2024.
• Current Account: Expected to decrease slightly from 2.0% to 1.2% of GDP.

Key Risks:

1. External: Resilience of private sector debt, inflation persistence, high interest rates, sharper China slowdown, US elections.
2. Domestic: More intense El Ni~no, renewed social tensions, populist policies affecting competitiveness.

Summary of Forecasts (Q3 2023):

| Category                 | 2023 (YoY%) | 2024 (YoY% )|
|--------------------------|-------------|--------------|
| GDP                      | 0.4         | 2.3          |
| Domestic Demand          | 2.2         | N/A          |
| Private Spending         | -0.8        | N/A          |
| Private Investment       | -6.5        | N/A          |
| Public Investment        | -0.6        | N/A          |
| Inflation                | 2.1         | N/A          |
| Policy Interest Rate      | 3.80-3.90   | N/A          |
| Current Account (% GDP) | 5.25        | N/A          |