期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2009number3_28页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - 2009 Number 3

Core Content

This issue of the NBER Reporter features the Martin Feldstein Lecture by John B. Taylor, which discusses the empirical evaluation of economic policy during the 2008 financial crisis. The lecture emphasizes the importance of real-time policy evaluation, contrasting with traditional long-term analyses, and explores the impact of monetary policy measures such as quantitative easing, MBS purchases, and the Term Auction Facility (TAF).

Main Points

1. Phases of the Financial Crisis

The financial crisis is divided into four phases:

• Phase 1 (2003–2006): Root cause period.
• Phase 2 (August 2007–September 2008): Flare-up to panic.
• Phase 3 (September–October 2008): Panic period.
• Phase 4 (Post-panic): Focus of the lecture.

2. Real-Time Policy Evaluation

• Real-time evaluation is essential due to the rapid changes in the crisis and the need for immediate policy feedback.
• It requires quantitative frameworks to compare actual and counterfactual policies.
• The Feldstein Lecture advocates for NBER-style empirical research to be conducted during the crisis, not just in hindsight.

3. Monetary Policy During the Crisis

• The Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing (QE) before the federal funds rate hit zero.
• The increase in reserves and central bank purchases were the primary drivers of lower interest rates, not the FOMC's rate decisions.
• The counterfactual policy involves not engaging in the MBS purchase program, the medium-term Treasury purchase program, and the TAF.

4. Impact of Specific Policies

• MBS Purchase Program: Fed purchases did not significantly lower the mortgage rate spread once risk measures were controlled for. The major drop in the spread was due to changes in risk perception.
• Longer-Term Treasury Purchases: While the 10-year Treasury rate initially fell, it later increased, suggesting that purchases had limited impact on long-term rates.
• Term Auction Facility (TAF): The TAF had little measurable impact on the Libor-OIS spread, indicating that it may not have been as effective as intended in reducing market tension.

Key Information

5. Conclusion

• The empirical results suggest that monetary policy had limited impact on key interest rates compared to the counterfactual.
• The Fed could have exited its unconventional policies earlier under the counterfactual.
• The findings highlight the importance of real-time empirical analysis in understanding policy effects, despite being preliminary.

6. Other Research Summaries

Search Technologies and Retail Competition

• Glenn Ellison examines the role of search technologies in retail markets.
• Pricewatch is a search engine used to find low-priced computer parts, and it reduces search frictions.
• Empirical findings show that search frictions still exist, and firms maintain price markups of 8–16%.
• Add-on pricing is shown to create adverse selection, leading to higher markups.
• Search cost models suggest that firms may increase search frictions to maintain profits.
• Sales taxes influence online-offline retail competition, with a 6% decrease in online sales for a 1% increase in sales tax rate.

Sponsored Search Auctions

• Sponsored search (e.g., Google's "sponsored links") is an important online retail platform.
• The auction model suggests that advertisers with higher quality are more likely to win bids, leading to efficient consumer search.
• Auction design involves trade-offs between reserve prices, click-through rates, and efficiency.
• The topic is gaining attention in both computer science and economics.

NBER Profiles and Other Information

7. NBER Profiles

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
• Key personnel include:
  • President and CEO: James M. Poterba
  • Board of Directors includes prominent economists from various universities and organizations.
  • Directors by University Appointment include scholars from MIT, Stanford, Harvard, and others.
  • Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations include members from the American Economic Association, the Conference Board, and others.

8. Conferences and Events

• The issue also includes information about NBER conferences, program meetings, and working group discussions.

9. NBER News

• Highlights recent developments and research initiatives at the NBER.

10. Bureau Books

• Lists recently published books by NBER researchers.

References

• Taylor (2009): Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations
• Cogan et al. (2009): New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers
• Feldstein and Stock (1997): The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP
• Stroebel and Taylor (2009): Evaluating the MBS Purchase Program
• Svensson (2009): Evaluating Monetary Policy
• Ellison and Ellison (2004, 2009): Search, Obfuscation, and Price Elasticities on the Internet
• Ellison (2003): A Model of Add-On Pricing
• Ellison and Wolitzky (2009): A Search Cost Model of Obfuscation