2025年投资展望

This report provides a comprehensive outlook for global markets in 2025, emphasizing the likelihood of Trump's re-election and its potential impacts across multiple regions and asset classes.

The core expectation is that Trump's policies will support economic growth but carry risks, such as heightened inflation due to fiscal stimulus, trade disputes, or immigration policies, potentially affecting bond markets and slowing economic growth in other regions. Multi-asset investors are urged to re-think diversification strategies, incorporating bonds for income and recession protection, assets that perform well during inflation shocks, and real assets to hedge against inflation concerns. The traditional role of government bonds as a safe haven is challenged by fragmented global markets and potential fiscal issues, suggesting a need for more nuanced fixed-income exposure.

In equity markets, technology sectors, particularly AI, remain a focal point, with valuations being high. However, the introduction of fewer regulations would be beneficial for sustained improvement in Chinese stock performance. There is a strong case for investors to reconsider their exposure to emerging markets, where valuations are relatively cheap compared to developed markets but lack predictability.

Geopolitically, the US's "America First" policies could lead to trade tensions, affecting supply chains; however, countries like Mexico and Vietnam may benefit through "friend-shoring," i.e., reshoring supply chains containing more resilient elements. The potential for China to have programs to encourage younger populations to have more children remains underappreciated and could be beneficial.

In conclusion, the market outlook is characterized by high uncertainty, requiring investors to adopt a diversified approach across various asset classes. Key policies to monitor include fiscal measures, trade-related actions, and potential shifts in climate policy between major economies.