ODASA-2016-2045年新兴科技趋势（英文）-2018.10-35页-5mb

2016 S&T Strategic Trends Report Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology), presents a synthesis of 32 science and technology (S&T) forecasts from 2011 to 2016. It aims to identify trends that will significantly impact the U.S. Army's future capabilities and the broader global operating environment over the next 30 years.

Main Objectives

1. Inform Army Leaders: Provide insights into S&T trends that will shape the future of military operations and the Army's capabilities.
2. Spark Strategic Dialogue: Encourage discussions on S&T investments to maintain the U.S. Army's overmatch in future conflicts.

Key Emerging S&T Trends

The report identifies 24 key S&T trends that are expected to have a major influence on the Army and global affairs:

• Robotics and Autonomous Systems
• Additive Manufacturing
• Analytics
• Human Augmentation
• Mobile and Cloud Computing
• Medical Advances
• Cyber
• Energy
• Smart Cities
• Internet of Things (IoT)
• Food and Water Technology
• Quantum Computing
• Social Empowerment
• Advanced Digital
• Blended Reality
• Technology for Climate Change
• Advanced Materials
• Novel Weaponry
• Space
• Synthetic Biology
• Changing Nature of Work
• Privacy
• Education
• Transportation and Logistics

Cross-Cutting Contextual Trends

Six major contextual forces are identified as likely to shape the evolution of S&T over the next 30 years:

• Urbanization
• Climate Change
• Resource Constraints
• Shifting Demographics
• Globalization of Innovation
• Rise of the Global Middle Class

These trends will influence how S&T develops and is applied, particularly in relation to national security, defense, and the broader socio-political landscape.

Impact on Society and Defense

Each of the identified trends is analyzed for its potential impact on various aspects:

• Economic and Social Impact: Automation and augmentation could displace workers, leading to economic instability and social unrest.
• Cybersecurity Challenges: The proliferation of connected devices increases vulnerability to cyberattacks, requiring enhanced defense strategies.
• Military Applications: Robotics, medical advances, and cyber capabilities will transform battlefield operations and soldier support.
• Technological Disruption: The integration of digital systems into everyday life will redefine how the Army interacts with its personnel, equipment, and environment.

Methodology and Scope

• A comprehensive review of 32 open-source reports from reputable institutions was conducted.
• These reports were selected based on their rigorous research, relevance to the Army, and coverage of a wide range of S&T trends.
• The report highlights 690 specific trends, which were analyzed to identify 24 "mega-trends" and six contextual themes.

Conclusion

The U.S. Army must remain proactive in its S&T investments to stay ahead of emerging threats and opportunities. As technological advancements continue to reshape the world, the Army must anticipate and adapt to these changes to ensure operational superiority and readiness for future conflicts.

Trend Cards

The report includes detailed "trend cards" for each of the 24 identified S&T trends. These cards summarize the trend, outline key enablers, highlight recent developments, and review the potential impacts on society, politics, the economy, the environment, and national defense.

Final Considerations

The report underscores the importance of strategic foresight in shaping the Army's future. As the global landscape evolves, the Army must integrate these trends into its planning and operations to maintain a competitive edge and ensure the safety and effectiveness of its forces.