2016年Q3全球经济形势调查报告（英文版）_22页_474kb

Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q3, 2016 Summary

Core Content

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA and IMA, is the largest regular economic survey of accountants worldwide, offering valuable insights into global economic conditions. The survey collected responses from 1,512 members, including over 150 CFOs, across various regions and economic variables.

The key confidence indicator rose for the second consecutive month, reaching its highest level since Q2 2015, indicating a gradual improvement in global business confidence. However, 37% of respondents still expressed less confidence about economic prospects, highlighting the overall subdued state of the global economy.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Confidence Trends

• Overall business confidence improved, reaching its highest level since Q2 2015.
• OECD economies showed the strongest recovery in confidence, with confidence levels at their highest since Q2 of the previous year.
• Non-OECD economies, particularly China, also saw a rise in confidence, now at its highest since 2012.
• Declining income remained the biggest concern for companies, with 43% reporting this as a problem, down from 45% in Q2.
• Exchange-rate movements continued to be a concern, but the share of companies reporting this concern fell to 29% from 32%.

Brexit Impact

• The UK's Brexit vote had a limited impact globally, with 59% of respondents believing there would be no effect, and 70% in North America.
• Western Europe was the only region where the Brexit vote had a noticeable impact, with 48% of respondents in the region reporting a decrease in confidence.
• The fall in the pound (around 10% in trade-weighted terms) boosted confidence among UK exporters.
• Despite the initial shock, the UK economy showed signs of resilience, with 0.7% GDP growth in the second quarter and consumer confidence returning to pre-referendum levels.

Protectionism and Global Integration

• There are fears of a slowdown in global integration, with global trade volumes falling and a record number of trade restrictions being applied.
• The WTO's Doha round of negotiations remains stalled, and the Brexit vote has potentially encouraged anti-EU sentiment in other countries.
• Free trade is seen as a key driver of long-term productivity gains, and a slower pace of integration could lead to a slowdown in global growth.

US Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

• The Fed is expected to resume interest rate hikes, with a potential increase in December.
• Concerns remain about the effectiveness of quantitative easing (QE) and the monetary policy framework in dealing with future recessions.
• Fiscal stimulus is seen as more promising than monetary policy for boosting growth.

Regional Analysis

North America

• Business confidence improved, with 32% of firms less confident, down from 36% in Q2.
• Increased costs and falling incomes are the main concerns.
• Canada showed the most significant confidence increase, driven by rising government spending and recovered oil prices.

Western Europe

• Confidence slightly improved, but remains weak by historical standards.
• The Eurozone has not achieved significant growth momentum, with consumer tailwinds not translating into stronger business spending.
• Inflation in the eurozone reached 0.4% in September, up from 0.2% in August, but still low by historical standards.

The UK and Ireland

• UK confidence rose, driven by expectations of government spending increases and reduced austerity.
• Ireland saw a decline in confidence, mainly due to fears of re-imposing border checks and tariff increases on exports to the UK.

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

• Confidence declined in Q3, influenced by poor growth prospects in the Eurozone.
• Russia also saw a drop in confidence, although the economy has passed the worst of the 2014 crisis.

South Asia

• Business sentiment rose, with 38% of companies more confident than in any other region.
• India was a key driver of this improvement, with reforms and GST implementation boosting confidence.
• Fiscal discipline is a growing concern in Pakistan, as its IMF program ends.

Asia Pacific

• Confidence improved for the fourth consecutive quarter, largely due to China's recovery.
• However, 46% of respondents in the region reported feeling less confident than in the previous quarter.
• Weak export growth and rising household debt in several countries were key concerns.

Middle East

• Economic confidence improved for the second consecutive quarter.
• The slump in oil prices has led to cuts in state spending in the Gulf, contributing to the low confidence levels.

Key Statistics

• 37% of respondents are less confident about economic prospects.
• 43% of companies report concern about declining income.
• 29% of companies are concerned about exchange-rate movements.
• 51% of respondents expect an increase in government spending.
• 38% of companies in South Asia are more confident than in any other region.
• 46% of Asia Pacific respondents feel less confident than in the previous quarter.
• 10% drop in the pound since the Brexit vote.

Conclusion

While the global economy showed signs of recovery in Q3, with confidence rising and some regions experiencing notable improvements, the outlook remains cautious. Protectionism, political uncertainty, and economic structural issues continue to pose challenges. China and OECD economies were key drivers of the confidence recovery, but fiscal and monetary policy limitations, as well as trade concerns, suggest that global growth may remain subdued in the near term.