20230421-瑞达期货-晨会纪要观点_6页_371kb

Market Analysis Summary for Chemical Products (April 21, 2023)

Overall Market Conditions:

• Economic slowdown fears and reduced demand amid global recessions weaken market sentiment. International crude oil prices are falling due to declining exports from Russia and other factors, limiting cost supports. Most chemical products face downward pressure, though some show signs of recovery from inventory buildup and supply adjustments.

Key Insights by Product:

• Asphlat BU2307:

  • Spot prices: Slight decreases in key regions like Shandong and North China due to higher trade inventories.
  • Factors: Crude oil pullback from US and Russia, improved downstream demand but capped by increased low-bid offers.
  • Tech view: Support at 3800, resistance near 10-day moving average.
  • Advice: Short-term range-bound trading, avoid large positions.

• Benz Sulfone EB2306:

  • Prices: Stable around 8541 yuan/ton; inventories declining.
  • Factors: Growing demand from EPS, PS, ABS end-uses; oil price potential support but with weak overall demand.
  • Tech view: Bearish trends with tight Bollinger bands; 1H chart shows widening volatility.
  • Advice: Favored for short-term selling (沽空) with stop-loss at 8750.

• Calcium Chloride EG2309:

  • Prices: Holding near 4200–4350 yuan/ton range.
  • Factors: Crude oil fall reduces cost supports; polyester sector slowdown increases supply, though inventories are moderately easing.
  • Tech view: Support near 4200, resistance at 4350.
  • Advice: Interval trade strategy for short-term instability.

• Glass FG2309:

  • Production/scenario: Stable from prior week, but increased hot repair length risks.
  • Factors: Government policies may boost demand, yet supplied volumes are climbing due to factory restarts.
  • Tech view: Quick gains could pull back; be cautious of overbought conditions.
  • Advice: No strong entry recommendation; cautious trend-following.

• Heavy Oil/Fuel Oil (LU/FU2309):

  • Motions: Oil pullback affects settling prices; wider supply disputes.
  • Factors: Global demand fears and export promotions from Russia tighten resources slightly.
  • Tech view: Support area around key levels like 2950; turbulent range.
  • Advice: Short-term trading; avoid directional bets.

• Plastic/LDPE: HOPE Not FRU The Week Is key repair season but demand lagging stocks rise; court or text, oper hold or sell.

(A shortened summary due to length constraints; key points from original data provided where possible. Missing details: review original for depth.)