2010年-世界发展银行全球_Fertility_Decline_in_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_1980-2006___A_Case_Study_52页_2mb

Summary of "Fertility Decline in the Islamic Republic of Iran 1980-2006: A Case Study"

Core Content

The Islamic Republic of Iran experienced a significant fertility decline from 1980 to 2006, transitioning from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 6.58 to 1.9. This decline was more pronounced than in other Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries and comparable to lower middle-income countries globally. The case study explores the factors that contributed to this fertility transition, including changes in proximate determinants, socioeconomic developments, and public policy interventions.

Main Views and Key Information

Fertility Transition in Two Stages

1. First Fertility Decline (1960s–1980s):

   • Fertility began to decline in the late 1960s.
   • The government introduced family planning programs in the 1960s, with early success in urban areas.
   • However, the fertility decline stalled during the late 1970s and early 1980s due to the Iran-Iraq War and the Islamic Revolution.
   • After the war, the government shifted to a pronatalist policy, which temporarily reversed the decline.

2. Second Fertility Decline (1990s–2000s):

   • The decline resumed in the late 1980s and continued through the 2000s.
   • This phase was marked by delayed marriage, increased female education, and widespread family planning.

Proximate Determinants of Fertility

• Marriage:

  • Early marriage was historically common in Iran, influenced by religious and cultural norms.
  • The legal age for marriage was set at 15 for girls and 18 for boys in 1935, but rural areas often saw girls married before 15.
  • Post-1979, the average age at marriage for women increased from 19.8 years in 1986 to 23.2 years in 2006, and for men from 23.6 to 25.6 years.

• Age at First Birth:

  • Age at first birth was closely linked to age at first marriage.
  • Cultural pressure to have children early reduced contraceptive use before first birth.

• Contraceptive Prevalence:

  • Contraceptive use rose significantly, especially after the 1993 Family Planning Law.
  • By 2000, contraceptive use reached 74 percent of eligible women.
  • Urban areas had higher rates than rural ones, but the gap narrowed over time.

• Breastfeeding Duration:

  • Breastfeeding was promoted as an Islamic value and a health measure.
  • The average duration was 22.7 months in rural areas and 18.7 months in urban areas, but it did not significantly impact fertility due to non-exclusive breastfeeding.

• Induced Abortion:

  • Abortion is legal under certain conditions, but most are performed secretly and are unsafe.
  • The impact on fertility is unclear, but it may have increased birth intervals.

• Infertility:

  • Primary infertility was estimated at 3.4 percent in 2004–2005, lower than the global average.
  • Infertility rates did not significantly affect the overall fertility trend due to their relatively low proportion.

Socioeconomic and Cultural Factors

• Religion:

  • Religious beliefs shaped family planning policies, particularly after the Islamic Revolution.
  • While some forms of contraception were accepted, others like sterilization and abortion were discouraged.

• Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988):

  • The war led to a shift in government policy from family planning to population expansion.
  • A rationing system incentivized larger families by providing food and household items to infants.

• Child Mortality and Value of Children:

  • High child mortality rates historically contributed to higher fertility.
  • During the war, child mortality decreased due to improved health services, which may have reduced the need for large families.

Education and Female Participation

• Education:

  • Improved education, especially for women, was a key factor in the second fertility decline.
  • Literacy campaigns and educational reforms increased access to schooling, particularly for rural women.
  • Female education levels correlated with delayed marriage and childbirth.

• Female Labor Force Participation:

  • Female employment declined after the Islamic Revolution, from 12.9 percent in 1976 to 8.2 percent in 1986.
  • However, it increased slightly after the 1990s, contributing to delayed childbearing and lower fertility.

Family Planning and Health Care

• Family Planning Programs:

  • The 1993 Family Planning Law integrated family planning into the primary health care system.
  • This led to expanded access to maternal and child health services, including contraception, which contributed to the fertility decline.

• Health Care Access:

  • The government's investment in primary health care led to improved maternal and child health outcomes.
  • Infant mortality rates dropped significantly from 120 per 1,000 live births in 1974 to 30 per 1,000 in 2006.

• Regional Variations:

  • Fertility rates varied across regions, with higher rates in less developed areas.
  • Urban areas saw more significant declines in fertility due to better access to education and family planning services.

Conclusion

Iran's fertility decline is a result of a combination of socioeconomic and cultural changes, including improved education, increased access to family planning services, and shifts in government policy. The country's example highlights the importance of integrating health and education policies to achieve sustainable fertility reduction and human development. Despite the challenges posed by religious and political factors, Iran managed to significantly lower its fertility rate, demonstrating the potential of public policy interventions in shaping demographic outcomes.