20240114-国联证券-对12月外贸数据的思考与展望_外需或被出口数据低估_14页_814kb

报告摘要

The December 2023 export data, after seasonal adjustment, showed a 0.8%环比 decline, primarily attributed to weakening external demand and potential statistical factors that may understate actual external demand.
Imports increased by 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting domestic demand remains relatively strong, with various product categories contributing to the rebound.
Overall outlook for 2024 is cautiously optimistic, with exports and imports expected to maintain mild环比 growth, supported by stable export shares and indicators of US economic soft landing.

Export同比增长 rose to 23% (dollar-price), boosted by low 2022 year-on-year comparison, but季节性调整后环比 fell 0.8%.
Key drag factors include sharp declines in raw materials exports (-86%) and exports to emerging economies (-22%).
External demand weakening, indicated by global manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.0%, and statistical adjustments likely understated the export data.

Import同比增长 improved to 2% (dollar-price), and seasonally adjusted imports rose 13.0%, contrasting with market expectations positive in supporting domestic recovery.
Main contributors were increased imports of oil, high-tech products, and mechanical equipment, while mineral imports saw a slight decline.
Import rebound may reflect stronger domestic demand or factors like currency exchange rates.

Exports are anticipated to grow slightly in 2024 due to stable global market shares and potential US economic stabilization, despite a likely negative year-on-year growth in the early months due to high 2023 baseline.
Imports are expected to continue increasing as中国经济 recovery supports capital expenditure and demand, based on improving industrial profit margins.
Risks include uncertainties in海外 economies and政策 unforeseen developments.

Discrepancies in overseas economic performance or policy shifts could impact export demand.
Statistical adjustments orexternal unfavourable shocks may affect data accuracy and growth prospects.

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