亚开行-亚洲发展展望2020：在令人担忧的时代更新健康（英文）-2020.9-271页_15mb

报告摘要

Summary of Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update: Wellness in Worrying Times

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Update provides an analysis of the economic situation and outlook for developing Asia in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The report emphasizes the importance of wellness—both physical and mental—as a key component of post-pandemic recovery and economic development.

Main Views

Economic Recovery is Precarious: Asia is experiencing its first regional recession in nearly 60 years due to the pandemic's impact. The region is projected to contract by 0.7% in 2020, with GDP growth expected at 6.8% in 2021, still below pre-pandemic levels.
Global Economic Slowdown: The pandemic has led to a global economic contraction, with the euro area and the US also experiencing significant declines. This has affected Asia's trade and economic activity, though the region's contraction is less severe than global levels.
Inflation is Expected to Remain Low: Demand-side pressures and declining food and fuel prices have kept inflation in check. The headline inflation forecast for 2020 is 2.9%, and it is expected to ease further to 2.3% in 2021. However, South and Central Asia face higher inflation risks due to supply chain disruptions and currency depreciation.
Current Account Surpluses Remain Stable: The current account surplus is projected to remain stable at 1.4% of aggregate GDP in both 2020 and 2021, despite trade contractions in 2020.
Wellness is a Growing Economic Sector: The wellness sector contributes over 11% of regional output, growing more than 10% annually. It includes physical and mental health activities, and is expected to further boost demand in the coming years due to the pandemic.
Wellness as a Driver of Growth: Wellness is not only important for individual health but also for economic growth. It can enhance productivity, improve societal well-being, and support long-term development.
Policies for Wellness: Governments should implement inclusive wellness policies that promote healthy living environments, physical activity, healthy diets, and workplace wellness. Leveraging Asian wellness traditions can also support mental and physical health.

Key Information

Regional Economic Outlook

Developing Asia: Projected to contract by 0.7% in 2020, with a rebound to 6.8% in 2021. However, the recovery is expected to be L-shaped or “swoosh-shaped”, not V-shaped.
East Asia: Expected to contract by 1.3% in 2020 and rebound to 7.0% in 2021. The PRC is projected to grow by 7.7% in 2021, while Hong Kong, China and Republic of Korea will contract in 2020 but recover in 2021.
South Asia: Expected to contract by 6.8% in 2020 and rebound to 7.1% in 2021. India faces the steepest GDP contraction, with a 23.9% decline in the April–June quarter. Maldives and Sri Lanka are among the hardest-hit due to their reliance on tourism.
Southeast Asia: Projected to contract by 3.8% in 2020 and grow by 5.5% in 2021. Domestic stimulus has helped rebound growth. However, economic recovery remains slow due to global trade conditions.
Central Asia: Expected to contract by 2.1% in 2020 and grow by 3.9% in 2021. Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic are among the most affected, with Kyrgyz Republic projected to contract by 10.0% in 2020. Tourism and remittances are key vulnerabilities.
The Pacific: Projected to contract by 6.1% in 2020 and grow only slightly in 2021. Fiji and tourism-dependent economies are especially vulnerable. Papua New Guinea is expected to contract by 2.9% in 2020 and grow by 2.5% in 2021.

Inflation and Current Account

Inflation: Expected to stay low at 2.9% in 2020 and 2.3% in 2021, though South and Central Asia face higher inflation risks due to supply chain issues and currency depreciation.
Current Account Surplus: Expected to remain stable at 1.4% of GDP in 2020 and 2021.

Risks

Main Risk: A prolonged pandemic could slow or derail recovery, especially if containment measures are reintroduced or intensified.
Geopolitical Tensions: Potential US–PRC trade and technology disputes could exacerbate economic uncertainty.

Wellness in Worrying Times

Wellness as a Key Factor: Wellness is critical for post-pandemic recovery. It supports individual health, societal well-being, and economic resilience.
Wellness Economy Growth: The wellness sector contributes 11% of regional output, growing over 10% annually. It includes healthcare, fitness, and mental health services.
Traditions and Innovation: Asia has a rich heritage of wellness traditions that can be harnessed for economic development. These traditions can support both physical and mental health.
Policy Recommendations: Governments should promote inclusive wellness policies, such as building recreation centers in poor neighborhoods, to support all segments of society. These policies can help navigate uncertain times and build a better new normal.

Conclusion

The ADO 2020 Update underscores the challenges and opportunities in the wake of the pandemic. While economic recovery is expected, it will be slow and uneven. Wellness is highlighted as a vital component of this recovery, with the potential to boost growth, improve health, and enhance societal resilience. Policies that integrate wellness into economic and social frameworks are essential for long-term development.