2026-02-02-德意志银行-Macro_Notes_NZ_Quick_take_on_the_QSBO-119715729_11页_613kb

Summary of the New Zealand QSBO Survey (Q4-25)

Core Content

The latest Quick Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) for New Zealand, released on 13 January 2026, provides key insights into the country's economic activity, employment, and inflation trends. The survey highlights three major areas of focus that indicate potential shifts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) November Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) forecasts.

Main Highlights

1. Upward Revision in Economic Activity

• The QSBO trading activity index increased by 14 points, the largest gain since Q1-2024.
• This brings the index to its highest level since Q3-2021, suggesting material upside risk to GDP growth over the coming quarters.
• The increase implies a stronger-than-expected economic performance compared to the RBNZ's forecast.

2. Decline in Unemployment

• Firms reported similar levels of difficulty in finding skilled labor in Q4 compared to Q3.
• Mapping this to the unemployment rate suggests a ~0.5ppt decline by Q1-2026.
• This would be a more significant improvement than the RBNZ's forecast of a drop to 5.2% from 5.3% in Q3-2025.
• The monthly "filled jobs" employment indicator has shown positive quarterly growth for September and October 2025, pointing to the possibility of positive employment growth in Q4-25, the first since Q2-2024.

3. Acceleration in Inflation

• Merchant selling prices rose further in Q4, indicating increased inflationary pressures.
• The QSBO suggests headline inflation will be ~1ppt above the RBNZ's forecast by Q1-2026.
• The RBNZ's November MPS forecast is for 2.3% yoy inflation, but the QSBO points to a higher rate, potentially above 3%.
• The proportion of respondents indicating rising selling prices reached its highest level since Q2-2023, suggesting a stronger-than-expected inflationary environment.

Key Takeaways

• The QSBO data indicates a positive economic outlook for New Zealand, with upward revisions in activity and inflation, and a more significant drop in unemployment than previously anticipated.
• These outcomes contradict the RBNZ's current forecasts, raising the possibility of earlier interest rate hikes than the market currently prices.
• The historical reliability of the QSBO survey is acknowledged, and the report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming hard data for validation.

Bottom Line

The QSBO survey signals material upside risks to the RBNZ's forecasts, suggesting stronger economic activity, lower unemployment, and higher inflation in the coming quarters. This could lead to earlier rate hikes than currently expected. While no change in the current outlook is made, the data is taken seriously and further analysis will be based on upcoming hard data.

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