深度报告-2026-02-02-德意志银行-Thematic_Research_MA_outlook_2026_Doing_something_big-119750567_53页_1mb

Summary of M&A Outlook 2026

Core Content

The Deutsche Bank Research report outlines the expected trends in M&A activity for 2026, highlighting a recovery in dealmaking following a subdued period since 2022. The report suggests that the momentum from 2025 will continue into 2026, driven by pent-up demand, improved CEO confidence, and a more diversified sector mix in Europe.

Main Themes

1. 2025's Momentum to Lead 2026

• The impressive M&A recovery in H2 2025 indicates a strong foundation for continued growth in 2026.
• Despite the overall growth in deal values, US companies remain somewhat cautious, while European corporates are more active in discussing capital allocation.
• M&A values are correlated with GDP and are expected to grow by 15% in 2026, based on DB forecasts and historical data.
• The report highlights the potential for overshooting the forecast due to the lingering effects of economic uncertainty and pent-up demand.

2. CEOs’ Confidence Rebounds

• CEO confidence has improved, especially in their own company's prospects, despite the overall subdued market sentiment.
• The pressure to act decisively in M&A is increasing, with many CEOs aiming to demonstrate their AI strategies.
• AI is a key focus for investors, and companies are seeking to buy AI capabilities rather than build them internally.

3. European Deals to Follow the US Higher

• The US continues to lead in M&A dealmaking, with a record share of 60% of global deal value.
• European dealmaking is expected to follow the US trend, though it remains subdued relative to its stock market growth.
• Sponsored deals are on the rise, contributing to the overall M&A recovery, although corporate dealmaking is still the main driver.

4. Smaller Deals Pick Up Amidst Less Economic Uncertainty

• Larger, transformational deals are leading the recovery, but smaller deals are expected to increase as economic uncertainty decreases.
• The share of $1 billion deals is similar to previous M&A booms (2007 and 2021), suggesting a reversion to the mean in deal size distribution.

5. Private Equity Comes In from the Cold

• Private equity exits are growing, and deal values are at record levels.
• The IPO market is expected to reopen in 2026, providing more capital for private equity to deploy.
• Companies are increasingly favoring outright purchases over minority stakes, as they seek to enhance business value directly.

6. AI Buy Over Build

• Many CEOs are under pressure to demonstrate AI strategies, leading to a surge in AI-related M&A.
• There is a wide variance in AI implementation results, with some companies leading and others lagging.
• AI is expected to affect 40% of global employment, particularly in cognitive roles, though it may lead to more "sameness" in output.

7. A Releveraging Cycle

• A corporate leveraging cycle is anticipated as companies seek to expand and increase returns.
• Funding costs are low, and companies are exploring different borrowing options, including Yankee deals.
• Cash buffers have peaked, and the trend is shifting towards using debt to finance growth.

8. Spin-Offs Likely Front-of-Mind

• Asset shedding is expected to be a key theme in 2026, with companies focusing on increasing asset efficiency.
• Spin-offs and asset sales are likely to be more prominent, especially as companies look to improve their market performance and operational efficiency.

9. Less Fear About Interest Rates and the Dollar

• Stability in the dollar is a key enabler for M&A activity, particularly for international buyers and companies seeking foreign financing.
• Dollar depreciation and geopolitical risk are factors that may influence cross-border deals.

10. Growth in Cross-Border Deals

• Cross-border M&A is expected to grow due to factors like dollar stability, geopolitical risk, and the potential for AI-driven growth.
• US trade policies, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions are likely to impact deal dynamics.
• The market is becoming more open to non-tech deals and IPOs, reflecting increased confidence and a broader range of investment opportunities.

Key Information

• M&A Growth Forecast: Deal values are expected to grow by 15% in 2026, with potential for higher growth if the economy improves.
• Sector Trends: TMT and financial services are leading in the US and Europe, respectively, with AI playing a central role in corporate strategy.
• Regional Dynamics: The US has a higher share of deal value, while Europe is expected to follow with a more diversified approach.
• Private Equity: Private equity is contributing to the M&A recovery, with more exits and a renewed focus on outright acquisitions.
• CEO Focus: CEOs are shifting their attention back to growth opportunities, particularly in AI and asset efficiency.
• Market Volatility: The uncertainty around AI returns and economic conditions may lead to market volatility, especially in the tech sector.
• Capital Allocation: There is a growing interest in sponsored deals and capital deployment, with a shift from cash-based to stock-based transactions.

Conclusion

The M&A outlook for 2026 is positive, with a focus on transformational deals, AI integration, and releveraging. While the US leads in deal value, Europe is expected to follow with increased activity. The report emphasizes that the recovery is still in its early stages, and the potential for growth remains strong, particularly as economic conditions stabilize and companies become more confident in pursuing strategic acquisitions.