2025-05-15-Jefferies-估值不利_资金流向——目前最亮点_12页_670kb

报告摘要

Valuation and Market Performance: MSCI India is up 14% since March lows, now trading at 22.9x PE, above the 10-year average of 19.4x and at 1sd high levels. Valuations are driven higher by US-China trade relief and Indo-Pak deescalation, but downside risks arise from 11-12% EPS growth expectations for FY25-FY27, impacted by NIM compression in banks and weaker IT outlook.
Earnings Growth: EPS growth for MSCI India is expected at 11-12%, moderated from previous estimates due to results season beats ratio improvement, but downside risks persist as FPI flows trim earnings estimates.
Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) Flows: FPI inflows are positive, supporting the market, while USD depreciation and potential Plaza Accord 2.0 scenario (TWD appreciation) could drive EM inflows, including India.
Domestic Flows and Supply: Domestic MF inflows have moderated but may be bottoming, with potential for rise; however, equity supply is expected to match inflows in 2H24/25, risking capped upside.
Catalysts: A potential US trade deal, mirroring the UK-India FTA, could provide a near-term boost, offsetting valuation concerns and positive factors like low US tariff exposure.
Portfolio Adjustments: Trim OWT in financials (remove Shriram Finance) and coal; add Defence (BEL) for visibility and Cement (Ambuja Cements) for margin improvements, adjusting to model portfolio based on valuation and earnings risks.