20260901-招银国际-地平线机器人-W-09660.HK-Re-acceleration_on_HSD_expansion,_overseas_5页_1mb

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) Summary

Core Content

Horizon Robotics is a company that focuses on the development of high-end autonomous driving (AD) chips. The document outlines the company's financial performance and future projections for the next few years, highlighting its potential growth and profitability.

Main Points

• Current Performance:

  • In 1H26, Horizon's revenue increased by 33% YoY to RMB2.1bn, but it missed expectations by 9% due to lower ASP.
  • Gross margin remained flat YoY at 66.0%, outperforming projections by 5.6ppts.
  • Operating loss widened to RMB1.7bn, primarily due to higher R&D investments.
  • Adjusted net loss reached RMB1.7bn, exceeding forecasts by RMB558mn.

• Future Growth:

  • Horizon expects a sharp top-line acceleration in 2H26E with FY26 shipment of 5.2mn units, leading to revenue growth above 60% YoY.
  • Product ASP is projected to improve from RMB417 in 1H26 to RMB712 in 2H26E.
  • The company is on track to become China's No.1 high-end AD chip provider by 2027.
  • It aims for 7mn+ units in total deliveries in 2027 and is expected to maintain a GPM above 60% through FY28E.

• Profitability Outlook:

  • Horizon is expected to turn profitable in FY28E.
  • Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from RMB(1,671) in FY26E to RMB1,744 in FY28E.

• Financial Forecasts:

  • Revenue is expected to grow from RMB1,552 in FY24A to RMB14,472 in FY28E.
  • Gross margin is projected to decrease from 77.3% in FY24A to 60.3% in FY28E.
  • Operating profit is expected to improve from RMB(2,144) in FY24A to RMB821 in FY28E.
  • Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB(10,469) in FY25A to RMB859 in FY28E.

• Earnings and Valuation:

  • Earnings are revised with lower revenue forecasts for FY26-28E due to softer domestic auto sales, but higher GPM projections due to expanding licensing mix.
  • The target price is reduced from HK$7.80 to HK$7.00, based on a 10x FY27E P/S.
  • The company's P/S is expected to decrease from 11.5 in FY26E to 4.5 in FY28E.

Key Financial Metrics

Shareholding and Performance

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Mr. Yu Kai: 11.3%
  • CARIAD: 9.9%

• Share Performance:

  • 1-mth: -8.7%
  • 3-mth: -10.8%
  • 6-mth: -42.5%

• 12-mth Price Performance:

  • The stock has shown a significant decline over the past year.

Analyst Ratings

• CMBIGM Ratings:
  • BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
  • HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
  • SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
  • NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM.
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months.
  • MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months.
  • UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months.

Key Risks

• Slower HSD adoption.
• More intensifying competition than expected.
• Sector de-rating.

Analyst Certification

The research analyst certifies that all views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer, and that no part of his or her compensation was related to the specific views expressed in the report.

Disclosures

• The report is for the use of intended recipients only.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• The information is based on analyses and interpretations of publicly available and reliable information.
• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• The report is subject to legal and regulatory restrictions in different jurisdictions, including the UK, US, and Singapore.

Summary

Horizon Robotics is positioned for significant growth in the high-end AD chip market, with projections indicating a shift from a loss-making operation to profitability by FY28E. Despite a revenue miss in 1H26 due to lower ASP, the company's GPM has outperformed expectations, driven by high-margin licensing and service revenues. The company is expected to see a re-acceleration in top-line growth in 2H26E, with the potential for improved ASP and increased market share. However, the company faces risks including slower adoption of HSD and intensifying competition. The analyst maintains a BUY rating, but has adjusted the target price due to revised forecasts.