20150708-Maybank_KERPL-Recovery_play,_remains_Top_Pick_11页_975kb

报告摘要

Minor International PCL (MINT TB) Summary

Core Content

Minor International PCL (MINT TB) is a leading hotel and restaurant group in Thailand with a diversified international presence. The company's share price is currently THB30.50, and the target price is THB37.00, representing a 21% increase. The market capitalization is USD3.8B, and the average daily trading volume is USD7M. The company is rated as a BUY and remains the top pick in the hotel sector due to positive industry news flow and potential earnings upgrades.

Main Viewpoints

Industry Recovery: The hotel and restaurant sector is expected to recover as political tensions ease and the tourism industry rebounds. The occupancy rate bottomed out at 67% in 2Q14 and is projected to return to normal levels within 3-6 months.
Tourism Recovery: International tourist arrivals are anticipated to increase by 9.8% YoY to 29 million in 2015, with domestic travel expected to rise by 9.5% to 148 million trips. The Tourism Authority of Thailand has launched campaigns to promote tourism in 2H14-2015.
Revenue Growth: MINT is forecasted to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, with an expected 3–11% increase in earnings for 2014–2016. This is driven by improved occupancy rates, higher room rates, and expansion plans.
Diversification Strategy: The company's diversification across 14 countries with 38 owned and 70 managed hotels, and 1,568 equity-owned restaurants, is a key strength. This strategy helps cushion against regional risks and supports steady earnings growth.
Valuation: MINT's current valuation is attractive, trading at a 6% discount to regional peers based on the PER (Price-to-Earnings Ratio). The DCF-based target price implies a 26.5x PER, 4.5x P/BV, and 1.1x PEG for FY15F, in line with regional peers.

Key Information

Financial Highlights (FYE Dec)

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Revenue (THB m)	31,310.2	34,668.7	39,109.9	44,335.4	49,023.4
EBITDA (THB m)	6,562.0	7,590.0	8,503.8	10,027.5	11,272.5
Core Net Profit (THB m)	3,243.3	4,101.4	4,457.2	5,565.2	6,377.2
Core FDEPS (THB)	0.92	1.04	1.14	1.42	1.62
Core FDEPS Growth (%)	14.9	14.1	8.7	24.9	14.6
Net DPS (THB)	0.30	0.30	0.33	0.42	0.48
Core FD P/E (x)	33.3	29.2	26.9	21.5	18.8
P/BV (x)	6.3	4.9	4.3	3.7	3.2
Net Dividend Yield (%)	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.4	1.6
ROAE (%)	20.2	19.1	16.6	18.1	18.1
ROAA (%)	6.9	7.3	7.2	8.3	8.8
EV/EBITDA (x)	14.3	13.8	16.6	13.9	12.1
Net Debt/Equity (%)	114.5	79.0	61.7	46.2	32.8

Earnings Revisions

Year	Previous	Revised	% Change
2014F	4,321	4,457	3%
2015F	5,051	5,565	10%
2016F	5,727	6,377	11%

Expansion Plan

Hotel: MINT plans to operate at least 150 hotels in Thailand and overseas within five years, with a focus on the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait), Sri Lanka, and Mauritius.
Residential Projects: Launching Anantara Layan Phuket and luxury condominiums in Bangkok in 2H14.
Restaurant: Aiming to increase the number of restaurants to 2,600 by 2018F, with a focus on growth in the Middle East and performance improvement in China.

New Products

Avani Brand: A new upper mid-scale hotel brand to be introduced in the Thai market by the end of the year.
Anantara Layan Phuket: A luxury hotel project valued at THB5bn.
Luxury Condominiums: Launching in Bangkok's central business district in the last quarter of 2014.

Valuation and Performance

Current Valuation: MINT is trading at 26.8x 2014F PER, slightly above the long-term mean of 26.2x.
Target Price: THB37.00 (based on DCF model with 9% WACC and 3% terminal growth).
PER and P/BV: The target price implies 26.5x PER and 4.5x P/BV for FY15F, aligning with regional peers.
Earnings Growth: Expected to grow at 3–11% for 2014–2016, driven by improved occupancy rates and performance in the food sector.

Strategic Outlook

Diversification: Key to reducing volatility and ensuring steady earnings growth.
Occupancy Recovery: Expected to return to normal levels in 3–6 months, with a positive outlook for the hotel business from 4Q14 onwards.
Room Rates: MINT has managed to increase room rates faster than the market, despite political instability.
Consumer Confidence: Improved due to the shift to a military government, which is expected to boost economic conditions and consumer spending.

Conclusion

Minor International PCL is a strong investment opportunity due to its recovery potential in the hotel and food sectors, diversified international presence, and positive earnings outlook. The company's valuation is seen as compelling, and it remains the top pick in the hotel sector with a target price of THB37.00.

展开完整摘要