20230722-华安证券-电力设备_聚合提效靠虚拟电厂_新型电力系统迎腾飞机遇_36页_3mb

报告摘要

Report Summary

This Huashan Securities research report examines the role of virtual power plants (VPPs) in addressing challenges within the new energy system. Key issues include the intermittency and volatility of wind and solar power, leading to inefficiencies like curtailment and fluctuating supply.

Problem and Virtual Power Plant Core Role

The rise in renewable energy adoption poses risks due to its inherent characteristics, necessitating VPPs for better grid integration. VPPs act as intelligent systems managing distributed resources, enabling demand response and market participation. They offer economic benefits, such as reduced costs compared to traditional methods, and facilitate efficient energy resource utilization.

Market Opportunities and Investment

2025: Investment scale estimated at 80.5 billion RMB, potential market space of 78.4 billion RMB.
By 2030: Investment projection at 1,110 billion RMB, market space could expand to 1,729 billion RMB.
Environmentally, VPPs are projected to save 44 billion kWh of electricity by 2025, equivalent to one-quarter of Shanghai's 2022 Q1 consumption.

Risk Considerations

Factors include policy uncertainties, slow investment in distributed solar and grids, promotion delays, intense competition, and slower development of spot markets or ancillary services. Purchase and sale price differentials must also meet expectations for profitability.

Investment Recommendations

The report advises focusing on companies involved in VPP aggregation and services, such as Guoneng Rixin, Hengshi Technology, Fourside Power, Guangdong Rixin, Gedian Nanzi, Smart New Technology, Kangtian Technology, Dongfang Electronics, and Kelo Electronic.