2024-12-29-世界银行-2011-2022年北马其顿腐败风险及其价格影响的衡量（英）_67页_10mb

Policy Research Working Paper 11007
Measuring the Risk of Corruption and Its Price Impact in North Macedonia (2011–2022)

• Introduction: North Macedonia faces economic challenges, with public procurement contributing significantly to government spending. Corruption risks in procurement lead to overspending and inefficiencies, necessitating policy improvements.
• Data and Methodology:
  • Used administrative data from 2011–2022, including contract-level procurement data.
  • Developed the Corruption Risk Index (CRI), a composite indicator based on seven factors (single bidding, procedure type, price manipulation, etc.).
  • Applied network analysis to identify "state capture" patterns, where public and private entities collude and.
• Key Findings:
  • Corruption Risks: High CRI is prevalent in North Macedonia, with ~30% of contracts involving single bidding and high-risk suppliers often from regions with higher corruption.
  • Price Impact: Contracts with higher CRI have increased prices (up to 17.9% price inflation). Reducing risky practices could save ~5.3% of total spending (approx. 15.49 billion MKD).
  • Network Analysis: The procurement network became less centralized after the 2017 government change, reducing state capture risks. High-risk contracting clusters were concentrated in certain regions.
• Recommendations:
  • Strengthen transparency and competitive bidding procedures.
  • Use data-driven monitoring of procurement risks.
  • Expand use of open procedures and increase spending time.