2025-05-19-Jefferies-2025年第一季度回顾韧性强于预期_但展望大多谨慎_11页_621kb

报告摘要

Equity Research Summary: European Payments & FinTech

Q1'25 Recap

Market Backdrop: Remain healthy, with European performance indicating resilience.
Consumer Trends: Robust consumer spending amid cautious outlooks; US tariff changes had minimal visible impact.
Business Challenges: European business landscape remains challenging.

Key Takeaways

Stock Performance (YTD):
- Leaders: Nayax (+34%), Adyen (+14%), Wise (+1%).
- Laggards: Worldline (-40%), Edenred (-13%), Eurowag (-26%).
- Outlook: Concerns over "better-than-feared" prints led to negative revisions, but revised expectations suggest potential reversal.
Divisions Performance:
- Networks: Stronger performance in Europe compared to the US; Visa and Mastercard saw growth in Europe and CEMEA regions.
- Processors: Adyen robust trends; Worldline and Nexi underperform amid ongoing business challenges.
- Payment Services: Edenred benefits from high float revenue driven by interest rates; mobility mixed; Wise maintains strong business customer trends.
Analysts' Recommendations:
- Buy: Adyen, Wise, Nayax.
- Hold: Edenred, Worldline, traditional acquirers.
- Cautious: Emerging players and mid-cap acquirers due to visibility issues.
Valuation:
- Overall Trend: Payments sector trades at 14x 2026E P/E vs. long-term average of 20x, signaling improving valuation.
- Segments: Neo-players (Adyen, Block) command higher multiples; traditional acquirers trade lower.
Upcoming Catalysts:
- June 2-5: Jefferies Money 20/20 Europe Field Trip (AMS) with Adyen, Shift4, etc.
- June 16-18: Jefferies HQ Tour (Paris/Milan) to visit Edenred, WLN, Nexi, and Satispay.
- Wise FY25 earnings due on June 5.
Outlook:
- Negative revisions reversed amid lower likelihood of a severe US recession.
- Continuous "better-than-feared" prints could support recovery.