2017年-德勤全球_Africa_Construction_Trends_Report_2017_52页_2mb

Africa Construction Trends Report Summary (2017)

Core Content Overview

The 2017 edition of the Africa Construction Trends (ACT) report highlights the dynamics of infrastructure and capital projects (I&CP) across the continent, emphasizing the role of governments, the distribution of projects by region and sector, and the challenges of managing large-scale projects effectively.

Key Findings

Project Overview

• A total of 303 projects with a combined value of US$307bn were tracked, all valued at US$50m or more and having broken ground by June 2017.
• The number of projects increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the total value decreased by 5.2%.
• Southern Africa had the most projects (93), and West Africa had the highest project value (US$98.3bn).

Regional Breakdown

• East Africa accounted for 23.4% of all projects and 10.6% of total value.
• Southern Africa had 30.7% of projects and 29.2% of total value.
• Central Africa had 6.6% of projects and 3.2% of total value.
• West Africa had 26.1% of projects and 32% of total value.
• North Africa had 13.2% of projects and 25.1% of total value.

Project Value Distribution

• 63.7% of projects fell within the US$50m–US$500m range.
• 14.5% of projects were valued between US$501m–US$1bn.
• 5% of projects were valued between US$1.1bn–US$5bn.
• 1.7% of projects were valued above US$10bn.

Project Ownership

• Governments owned 72.9% of all projects, with 90.1% of projects in East Africa being government-owned.
• Private Domestic firms owned 12.5% of projects.
• International entities such as China (28.1%), France (5.3%), Italy (5.6%), and the UAE (1.3%) also played significant roles in project ownership.
• Single countries (e.g., US (2.3%), UK (2.3%), Australia (1.7%)) contributed to project ownership, though to a lesser extent.

Project Funding

• Governments were the largest funders, accounting for 27.1% of total funding.
• China funded 15.5% of projects.
• International Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) funded 13.2%.
• African DFIs funded only 9.2% of projects.
• Private Domestic firms funded 14.5% of projects.

Sectoral Distribution

• Transport was the largest sector, accounting for 36% of projects and 23.3% of total value.
• Real Estate followed with 22.4% of projects and 13.8% of value.
• Energy & Power was the third largest sector, with 19.1% of projects and 21.9% of total value.
• Oil & Gas contributed 4.3% of projects and 25% of value.
• Water, Mining, and Social Development were smaller sectors, each contributing less than 5% of projects and 1.2%–2.5% of value.

Economic Context

• The IMF projected global growth at 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was expected to grow at 3.4% in 2018, but still below the world average.
• East Africa was the fastest-growing region, with a forecast of 6.3% growth for 2017–2018.
• North Africa was projected to grow at 4.4%, with Libya contributing to the recovery.
• Central Africa had a low growth rate of 0.9% in 2017, expected to recover to 1.6%.
• West Africa was expected to grow at 2.9%, with Nigeria being a drag on growth.
• Southern Africa was among the slowest-growing regions.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

• GFCF as a percentage of GDP is a key indicator of infrastructure investment.
• In 2016, the average GFCF for SSA was 20.1%, while North Africa had the highest at 25%.
• Ethiopia was the only country in SSA that consistently invested over 30% of GDP into GFCF, reaching 40% in 2016.
• GFCF is expected to increase in Nigeria to 21.8% by 2020.
• Kenya and South Africa were expected to see small increases in GFCF spend, while Kenya was projected to decrease its GFCF spend.

Challenges and Trends

• Project overruns are common, especially in large and complex projects.
• Megaprojects (US$1bn or more) are rare and often delayed or complex to implement.
• Private sector involvement varies across regions, with East Africa seeing a rise in smaller projects and West Africa maintaining a high project value share.
• China has become the most prolific builder, with 85 projects in 2017, up from 67 in 2016.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of government-led infrastructure development in Africa, with Transport and Energy & Power being the most significant sectors. While East Africa is emerging as a growth leader, West Africa remains the region with the highest total project value. GFCF is a crucial metric for assessing infrastructure investment, with Ethiopia leading in this regard. The private sector is growing, but still plays a relatively minor role compared to government investment. The report also highlights the need for better project management to mitigate overruns and ensure that infrastructure investments contribute effectively to economic growth and development.