德勤全球-Africa_Construction_Trends_2018_60页_5mb

Africa Construction Trends Report Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Africa Construction Trends, highlights the growth and development of infrastructure across Africa, with a particular focus on the Transport sector, which accounts for nearly 40% of the 482 tracked projects, valued at over US$471bn. It also explores the role of China in Africa's infrastructure development, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the contributions of both public and private sector funding.

Main Points

Infrastructure and Prosperity

• A Chinese proverb, "If you want to prosper, first build roads," is central to the report.
• The Transport sector leads in project volume and value, showing the importance of infrastructure for economic growth.
• Real Estate is the second-largest sector, with significant growth in Industrial and Commercial projects, supporting manufacturing strategies.

Project Statistics

• Total Projects: 482, valued at US$471bn.
• Transport Sector: 186 projects (38.6%) in value, with 72.5% being roads and bridges.
• Real Estate Sector: 110 projects (22.8%), including Industrial (43 projects), Commercial (60 projects), and Residential (7 projects).
• Energy & Power Sector: 66 projects (13.7%) with a value of US$114.6bn.
• Other Sectors:
  • Water (26 projects, 5.4% of projects by number, 1.3% by value)
  • Mining (32 projects, 6.6% of projects by number, 6.2% by value)
  • Oil & Gas (8 projects, 1.7% by number, 8.2% by value)
  • Shipping & Ports (36 projects, 7.5% by number, 10.4% by value)
  • Social Development (3 projects, 0.6% by number, 0.1% by value)
  • Healthcare (13 projects, 2.7% by number, 0.4% by value)
  • Education (2 projects, 0.4% by number, 0.1% by value)

Project Funding and Ownership

• Government Funding: Dominates the funding landscape, accounting for 24.5% of projects, with the majority in the Transport sector.
• China: Funds 18.9% of projects, making it the second-largest funder.
• International DFIs: Contribute 13.7% of funding.
• Private Domestic Firms: Account for 10.6% of projects.
• Other Contributors: Middle East (5%), EU (5%), and others (3.7%).

Project Builders

• Chinese Companies: Lead in construction, completing 160 projects (33.2%).
• Local Contractors: Account for 24% of projects.
• Other Foreign Contractors: Include Italian (4.4%), French (3.1%), and others.

Regional Highlights

• East Africa: Has the highest number of projects (139) and a 96% increase from 2017 to 2018, with a total value of US$87.1bn.
• North Africa: Leads in project value (31.5%), with a 172.5% increase in project numbers.
• West Africa: Shows a decrease in project value (15.8% decline) due to Nigeria's economic struggles.
• Southern Africa: Maintains a steady number of projects (103) and a value of US$125.4bn.
• Central Africa: Shows the largest increase in value (174.5%), though project numbers are lower.

Key Information

Economic Growth Projections

• Global Growth: Projected at 3.7% for 2018-19.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Expected to grow at 3.5% for 2018-19, with a regional average of 3.1% in 2018.
• East Africa: Expected to grow at 6.4%, driven by countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania.
• North Africa: Expected to grow at 4.0%, with Egypt as the key driver.
• West Africa: Expected to grow at 3.4%, hindered by Nigeria's low growth.
• Southern Africa: Expected to grow at 1.7%, with South Africa's poor performance dragging the region down.
• Central Africa: Expected to grow at 3.1%.

Infrastructure Funding

• GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) as % of GDP:
  • Ethiopia: Highest at 39.9% of GDP in 2020.
  • South Africa: Forecasted to decrease GFCF by 0.5 percentage points.
  • Kenya: Expected to decrease GFCF by 1.4 percentage points.
  • Nigeria: Projected to increase GFCF to 18.7% in 2021.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Funding Gap: African DFIs provide relatively low funding compared to other institutions.
• Private Sector Involvement: Increasing, especially in Real Estate and Industrial projects.
• China's Role: Strong presence in infrastructure, with a focus on Transport projects.
• BRI Impact: Promises significant opportunities for African governments and investors.

Conclusion

• The report underscores the critical role of infrastructure in Africa's economic development.
• China is a major player in infrastructure investment and construction.
• The need for more funding and the involvement of both local and international actors is emphasized.
• The report highlights the importance of strategic investment in infrastructure for sustainable and inclusive growth.