20150902-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_30页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides an economic and sector update for the Asia-Pacific region, with a focus on China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes economic forecasts, company results, and investment recommendations for specific stocks. Additionally, it outlines key indices, assumptions, and market events relevant to the region.
Main Points
Economic Forecast - China
- More stimulus measures announced but likely insufficient to boost growth: The Chinese government has introduced monetary and fiscal easing, but the effectiveness on the real economy is questionable.
- Trimmed growth forecasts: China's GDP growth is expected to be 6.5% yoy for 2015 and 6.7% yoy for 2016, due to weak domestic and foreign demand.
- Deflationary pressures: CPI is expected to rise to 1.7% yoy in 2015 and 2.0% yoy in 2016, while PPI is projected to remain in deflation, with 4.5% yoy deflation in 2015.
- Exchange rate: The PBOC is working to stabilize the RMB, with the central parity rate fluctuating around 6.39. The RMB might depreciate to 6.5/USD if the US Fed raises interest rates.
- Foreign debt burden: The depreciation of the RMB could increase debt service costs by Rmb11b for Chinese foreign debt, which is a significant risk.
- Monetary policy: The PBOC is expected to implement two more RRR cuts to improve liquidity, and expand PSL and MLF to support local governments and policy banks.
Sector Update - China Coal
- Oversupply and weak demand: Coal prices remain low, with average prices in Qinhuangdao dropping to Rmb449/tonne in 1H15, down 16% yoy.
- Coal names suffering: Major coal companies like China Shenhua, China Coal, and Yanzhou Coal have reported significant earnings declines due to reduced sales and ASPs.
- Downstream focus: Companies are shifting towards downstream operations (e.g., power and coalchemicals) to improve profitability.
- Recommendation: Maintain UNDERWEIGHT for the coal sector. China Shenhua is the top pick with a target price of HK$25.00, while China Coal and Yanzhou Coal are HOLD due to continued losses and financial pressures.
Company Results - Baoxin Auto Group
- 1H15 results: Net profit of Rmb401m, down 26.7% yoy but up 151.5% hoh. The after-sales services segment drove the earnings recovery.
- New car sales margin decline: Gross margin dropped to 3.9% in 1H15, due to lower sales and ASPs.
- Investment in after-sales services: Baoxin increased its focus on after-sales services, which helped improve performance.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a revised target price of HK$2.90, down from HK$5.90 due to the sale of AutoStreet stake.
Key Indices and Assumptions
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 16058.4 | -2.8 | 2.5 | -9.2 | -9.9 |
| S&P 500 | 1913.9 | -3.0 | 2.5 | -9.0 | -7.0 |
| FTSE 100 | 6058.5 | -3.0 | 2.7 | -9.5 | -7.7 |
| AS30 | 5117.1 | -2.0 | -0.5 | -9.9 | -5.0 |
| CSI 300 | 3362.1 | -0.1 | 10.5 | -11.9 | -4.9 |
| FSSTI | 2882.8 | -1.3 | -0.1 | -10.0 | -14.3 |
| HSI | 21185.4 | -2.2 | -1.0 | -14.0 | -10.3 |
| JCI | 4412.5 | -2.2 | 4.4 | -8.1 | -15.6 |
| KLCI | 1609.2 | -0.2 | 5.0 | -6.6 | -8.6 |
| KOSPI | 1914.2 | -1.4 | 3.7 | -5.7 | -0.1 |
| Nikkei 225 | 18165.7 | -3.8 | 2.0 | -11.8 | 4.1 |
| SET | 1362.4 | -1.4 | 2.9 | -5.4 | -9.0 |
| TWSE | 8017.6 | -1.9 | 4.5 | -7.5 | -13.9 |
| BDI | 911 | -0.9 | 5.9 | -19.5 | -16.5 |
| CPO | 1806 | -0.3 | 5.8 | -15.8 | -21.4 |
| Brent Crude | 50 | -8.5 | 14.7 | -5.1 | -13.6 |
Key Assumptions
- GDP Growth:
- China: 7.0% yoy (2015F), 7.2% yoy (2014)
- Brent Crude (US$/bbl):
- 2014: 99.45
- 2015F: 61
- CPO (US$/mt):
- 2014: 722
- 2015F: 765
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price (Icy) | Target Price (Icy) | Potential Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Capital | 694 HK | 7.96 | 11.40 | 43.2 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | 4.50 | 7.60 | 68.9 |
| Bank BJB | BJBRIJ | 690.00 | 980.00 | 42.0 |
| DiGi Com | DIGI MK | 5.08 | 6.30 | 24.0 |
| Maybank | MAY MK | 8.77 | 10.00 | 14.0 |
| CapitaLand | CAPL SP | 2.80 | 4.08 | 45.7 |
| DBS | DBS SP | 17.47 | 23.75 | 35.9 |
| Kasikornbank | KBANK TB | 179.00 | 232.00 | 29.6 |
| PTT | PTT TB | - | 410.00 | 55.3 |
SELL Picks
- SIA Engineering (SIE SP): Target price HK$3.00, potential downside 12.0%
- UMWH: Target price HK$7.00, potential downside 16.4%
Corporate Events
- The United Laboratories Roadshow: Shanghai, 1 Sep – 2 Sep
- BMI International Teleconference: Hong Kong, 2 Sep
- Kuantan Port Site Visit: Malaysia, 3 Sep
- Phoenix Healthcare Group Roadshow: Shanghai, 8 Sep – 9 Sep
- Evergrande Real Estate Roadshow: Singapore, 11 Sep
- KWG Property Roadshow: Shanghai, 15 Sep
- Asian Gems Conference: Singapore, 12 Oct – 13 Oct
Malaysia
- 2Q5 results: Did not disappoint as much as feared, but external economic conditions are deteriorating.
- Earnings forecasts trimmed: Reflecting the weak outlook for growth and asset quality.
- Banking sector: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT due to no signs of a financial crisis but continued muted growth and asset quality stresses.
Singapore
- Screening for value: Focus on sectors like oil services, banks, and developers.
- Value criteria: Include resilient dividend yields and franchise stocks at reasonable valuations.
Thailand
- Energy & Petrochemical sector: Prefer downstream segments, with SCC as the best pick under stress test scenarios.
Investment Strategy
- BUY:
- China Shenhua (1088 HK): Target price HK$25.00
- MicroPort Scientific Corporation (853 HK): Experiences a turnaround
- HOLD:
- China Coal (1898 HK): Target price HK$3.70
- Yanzhou Coal (1171 HK): Target price HK$3.90
- SELL:
- Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK): Downgrade from BUY to SELL, target price HK$2.80
Summary of Key Financial Metrics for Baoxin Auto Group
| Metric | 2013 | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net turnover (Rmbm) | 30,082 | 30,723 | 29,931 | 30,733 | 30,374 |
| EBITDA (Rmbm) | 2,018 | 1,941 | 2,011 | 2,151 | 2,336 |
| Operating profit (Rmbm) | 1,744 | 1,622 | 1,652 | 1,759 | 1,913 |
| Net profit (rep./act.) (Rmbm) | 1,007 | 707 | 783 | 872 | 965 |
| Net profit (adj.) (Rmbm) | 879 | 711 | 783 | 872 | 965 |
| EPS (fen) | 34.4 | 27.8 | 30.6 | 34.1 | 37.7 |
| PE (x) | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| P/B (x) | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 6.9 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 6.3 |
| Net margin (%) | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) | 55.8 | 68.5 | 28.9 | 49.3 | 15.1 |
| Interest cover (x) | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| ROE (%) | 20.6 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
Analysts
- Chaoping Zhu (China):
- Email: chaoping@uobkayhian.com
- Phone: +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822
- Yan Shi (Coal):
- Email: yan.shi@uobkayhian.com
- Phone: +8621 5404 7225 ext 804
- Yingying Tang (Coal):
- Phone: (86 21) 5404 7225 ext. 819
- Email: yingying@uobkayhian.com
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