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Mobile Advertising Industry Summary

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the mobile advertising industry, focusing on the growth of mobile game media as a key driver of the sector. It outlines the evolving monetization model in the gaming industry, the role of advertising networks, and the impact of Apple's IDFA depreciation on the adtech ecosystem. The report also includes investment ratings and target prices for key players in the space, such as AppLovin, ironSource, and Unity.

Main Points

Industry Transition

• The gaming industry is transitioning from a-la-carte sales to a model combining In-App Purchases (IAP) and In-App Advertising (IAA), driven by the rise of free-to-play games.
• This shift has significantly expanded the target audience from ~150-200 million console users to anyone with a smartphone and a connection.
• Mobile advertising is experiencing secular growth, with the potential for addressable ad dollars to reach $100 billion+ over time.

Advertising Networks

• Advertising networks aggregate ad inventory and sell it to marketers, typically through an auction process based on eCPM (effective Cost Per Mille).
• The ad network model optimizes for specific user actions (e.g., installs, purchases) rather than simply maximizing impressions.
• Advertisers use creative content that drives engagement, leading to higher CTRs and CRs, which in turn increases eCPMs.

Auction Process

• Most mobile ad networks use a second-price auction model, where the highest bidder wins but pays slightly above the second-highest bid.
• The eCPM is calculated using CPI bids, CTR, and conversion rates, and is used to determine the winner of the auction.
• User-initiated ad units (e.g., rewarded video) tend to have higher engagement and eCPM compared to system-initiated units (e.g., interstitials).

IDFA Depreciation Impact

• Apple's introduction of the ATT framework and SKAdNetwork 2.0 in 2020 has impacted deterministic attribution, particularly for event and user targeting.
• IDFA depreciation has had a limited material impact on brokered ad networks like AppLovin, Unity, and ironSource, as they historically relied on contextual data rather than IDFA.
• MMPs (Mobile Measurement Partners) and self-attributing networks (SANs) have been more significantly affected, as they rely heavily on deterministic attribution.

Competitive Landscape

• The mobile adtech space is highly competitive, with major players such as Facebook, Google, and AppLovin leading the market.
• The rise of advertising networks has helped expand addressable inventory and improve targeting, which is expected to drive growth in ad spend.
• The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the mobile game media sector, with the "rising tide lifts all boats" narrative still applicable.

Key Information

Investment Ratings and Target Prices

• AppLovin (APP): Maintained Outperform rating with a target price of $95.
• ironSource (IS): Initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a target price of $16.
• Unity (U): Maintained Outperform rating with a target price decreased to $160 from $170.

Market Growth and Trends

• Mobile advertising has grown significantly, with app installs growing at ~17% CAGR over the past five years.
• In-App Advertising reached $182 billion in 2020, with In-App Purchases reaching $111 billion.
• The report emphasizes the potential for growth in ad load, targeting, and audience reach, with the possibility of doubling audience reach over the next decade.

Ad Unit Types

• System Initiated: Includes interstitials, banners, and full-screen ads.
• User Initiated: Includes rewarded video and offerwalls.
• Engagement rates and eCPMs vary significantly between these ad units, with user-initiated units typically offering higher returns.

Future Outlook

• The report forecasts continued growth in the mobile advertising sector, with potential for eCPMs to rise substantially.
• It also highlights the importance of addressing the challenges of app discovery and monetization, particularly for smaller developers.
• The long-term growth potential of the industry is seen as strong, with the possibility of reaching $100 billion+ in addressable ad dollars.

Conclusion

The mobile advertising industry is undergoing a transformation driven by the rise of free-to-play games and the expansion of addressable inventory. While challenges such as IDFA depreciation and competition exist, the overall growth trajectory remains positive. The report maintains a favorable outlook on the sector, with investment ratings and target prices reflecting confidence in the long-term potential of mobile game media.