2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Fiscal_Transparency_Assessment_96页_1mb

Summary of Ireland: Fiscal Transparency Assessment

Core Content

This document is a Fiscal Transparency Assessment of Ireland conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2013. It evaluates Ireland's fiscal reporting, forecasting, budgeting, and risk management practices in relation to the IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code. The assessment is based on information available up to July 2013 and is intended as background for periodic consultations with the Irish government.

Main Points

1. Fiscal Reporting

• Coverage: Ireland's fiscal reports cover a wide range of institutions, but not all public sector entities. They include central government (Exchequer), the Social Insurance Fund (SIF), and the National Training Fund (NTF), but exclude public corporations with significant net expenditure and assets/liabilities.
• Classification: Reports use a traditional classification system that conflates non-financial and financial transactions, and do not fully align with the ESA95 standard.
• Frequency and Timeliness: Monthly Exchequer Statements are published with a 2-day lag, while annual reports are published with a quarterly lag. Quarterly fiscal statistics are more comprehensive but not as detailed as annual reports.
• Quality and Reliability: The reports are generally reliable, with independent oversight by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) and Comptroller and Auditor General (C&AG). There is a moderate level of internal consistency and data revisions are disclosed.
• Fragmentation: Despite the high level of disclosure, fiscal data is scattered across multiple reports, institutions, and accounting bases, reducing comprehensiveness and comparability.

2. Fiscal Forecasting and Budgeting

• Comprehensiveness: Budget documentation is detailed and policy-oriented but lacks coverage of extra-budgetary activities and comprehensive reconciliation of forecast changes.
• Timeliness: Fiscal projections are published twice a year and are based on credible macroeconomic forecasts. However, the budget submission and approval process is not fully aligned with the new MTEF and EU fiscal governance reforms.
• Credibility: The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) independently evaluates fiscal forecasts, and the government has a Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) that sets fiscal targets and expenditure limits.
• Missing Elements: Budgets do not include financial plans for central government entities outside the Exchequer, and there is no regular publication of long-term fiscal projections.

3. Fiscal Risk Analysis and Management

• Disclosure: Fiscal risk analysis is present in budget documentation and IFAC reports, but the reporting of specific fiscal risks such as contingent liabilities and guarantees is scattered across multiple documents.
• Management: The government has mechanisms in place for managing fiscal risks, including the use of the FRL and the MTEF. However, the management of these risks is not centralized or consolidated.
• Challenges: The government does not regularly publish long-term fiscal projections, despite rising age-related expenditure pressures. Additionally, there is no comprehensive reconciliation of fiscal forecast changes between fiscal strategies and budgets.

4. Recommendations

The assessment outlines several recommendations to improve fiscal transparency in Ireland:

• Expand Institutional Coverage: Include all relevant public sector entities in fiscal reporting.
• Recognize Assets and Liabilities: Ensure all assets, liabilities, and corresponding flows are included in fiscal reports.
• Modernize Classification: Use internationally recognized classification systems (e.g., ESA95) for fiscal reporting.
• Improve Timeliness: Accelerate the submission and approval of budgets and accounts.
• Enhance Forecasting: Provide a detailed analysis of fiscal forecast changes and long-term trends.
• Improve Risk Reporting: Consolidate and publish comprehensive fiscal risk assessments.
• Harmonize Standards: Align financial reporting standards and practices across the public sector.

5. Action Plan

The government has committed to a multi-year action plan to improve fiscal transparency, including:

• Publishing quarterly general government fiscal statistics by 2016.
• Submitting the annual budget by mid-October to meet EU requirements.
• Publishing a trial consolidated Central Government Financial Statement in 2015.
• Introducing accrual-based accounting for the central government by 2017.
• Establishing a separate entity (NewERA) to provide financial and commercial advice on public corporations.

Key Information

• Fiscal Data Overview (2011):
  • Central government deficit is 1.9% of GDP larger than the Exchequer due to extra-budgetary entities.
  • General government net liabilities are 37.7% of GDP lower than gross debt due to fixed and financial assets.
  • Public sector net liabilities are 68.7% of GDP, higher than Canada and lower than the US.
• EU and International Standards:
  • Ireland has adopted the ESA95 classification system for fiscal reporting.
  • The government has implemented the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) and the Medium-term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).
• Fiscal Risk Disclosure:
  • Contingent liabilities and other specific fiscal risks are not fully consolidated and published in a comprehensive manner.
  • Government guarantees amount to 77% of GDP and are disclosed in the annual Finance Accounts.
  • There is no regular publication of long-term fiscal projections, despite significant long-term fiscal challenges.

Conclusion

Ireland has made substantial progress in improving fiscal transparency over the past few decades, particularly since the 1990s and the financial crisis. However, the country still faces challenges in consolidating and publishing comprehensive fiscal data, improving the frequency and timeliness of reporting, and adopting international accounting standards. The assessment concludes that Ireland has the capacity and resources to bring its fiscal transparency practices in line with international best practices within a reasonable timeframe and at a relatively modest cost. Implementing the proposed reforms would enhance the reliability and comprehensiveness of fiscal reporting, promote better public understanding of fiscal policy, and support compliance with EU fiscal governance reforms.