20260827-招银国际-商汤-W-00020.HK-Strong_revenue_growth_and_margin_expansion_fuelled_by_robust_AI_demand_5页_1mb

SenseTime (20 HK) Summary

Core Content

SenseTime reported strong financial results for the first half of 2026 (1H26), showing robust revenue growth and improved margins. The company's performance is driven by high demand for its AI solutions, particularly in the Generative AI (Gen AI) sector. The report highlights key business developments and provides updated forecasts and valuation insights.

Key Financial Highlights

• Total Revenue: Increased by 23% YoY to RMB2.91bn, aligning with Visible Alpha (VA) consensus estimates.
• Adjusted Net Loss: Narrowed by 67% YoY to RMB386mn, better than the consensus estimate of RMB523mn loss, due to improved efficiency and RMB521mn gains from the disposal of subsidiaries.
• Recurring Revenue (RR): Introduced and disclosed RMB1.14bn in 1H26, up by 124% YoY and representing 39% of total revenue (compared to 22% in 1H25).
• Gen AI Revenue: Grew by 28% YoY to RMB2.33bn, making up 80% of total revenue. This growth is attributed to the strong performance of Token Factory and enterprise agents.
• Computer Vision Business: Generated RMB497mn in revenue (17% of total), showing reaccelerating growth from FY25 (+3% YoY) to 14% YoY in 1H26. This business is a key driver for overseas revenue growth, which surged by 127% YoY to 14% of total revenue.

Forecast Revisions

• FY26E–28E Revenue Forecasts:
  • FY26E: RMB6,415mn (previous: RMB6,393mn)
  • FY27E: RMB7,945mn (previous: RMB7,678mn)
  • FY28E: RMB9,576mn (previous: RMB8,940mn)
• Adjusted Net Profit Forecasts:
  • FY26E: RMB-605.5mn (previous: RMB-674mn)
  • FY27E: RMB51.4mn (previous: RMB86mn)
  • FY28E: RMB530mn (previous: RMB1,112mn)
• EPS Forecasts:
  • FY26E: RMB0.02 (previous: RMB-0.02)
  • FY27E: RMB0.02 (previous: RMB-0.01)
  • FY28E: RMB0.02 (previous: RMB0.03)
• P/S Ratio:
  • FY26E: 8.0 (previous: 10.2)
  • FY27E: 6.5
  • FY28E: 5.4

Valuation

• Target Price: HK$2.45 (previously HK$2.50)
• Valuation Basis: Based on 12x FY26E EV/sales
• EV/Sales Ratio:
  • FY26E: 1.6
  • FY27E: 1.1
  • FY28E: 0.7

Market Position and Performance

• Shareholding Structure: Amind holds 17.1% of the shares.
• Stock Data:
  • Market Cap: HK$59,810.0mn
  • Average 3-month total return: HK$751.8mn
  • 52-week High/Low: HK$2.89 / HK$1.25
  • Total Issued Shares: 40,687.1mn
• Share Performance:
  • 1-month: +11.4%
  • 3-month: -17.9%
  • 6-month: -39.8%

Analyst Recommendations

• Rating: BUY
• Reasoning: The company is expected to deliver over 15% returns over the next 12 months.
• Target Price: HK$2.45, reflecting the updated valuation model and business performance.

Key Business Developments

• Token Factory: Daily average token service volume exceeded 2.4tn in July 2026, a 22-fold increase YoY. Total compute power reached 48,000 PFLOPS in August 2026.
• Enterprise Agents: Served over 1,000 enterprise customers in 1H26, with over 100 new customers added. Raccoon, an agent product for office scenarios, achieved peak DAUs of over 700k.
• Personal Assistants: Launched the Kapi series, a product matrix of agent-powered personal assistants, with cumulative users surpassing 45mn.

Strategic Focus

• Multimodal Agents: Aim to evolve through real-world tasks.
• Token Factory: Transition from scaled intelligence production to task delivery.
• Multi-Agent Collaboration: Enhance integration in personal and enterprise workflows.

Risks and Challenges

• Intensifying Competition: Affects market share and pricing.
• Macro Uncertainty: May impact IT budgets and overall demand.
• AI Investment Pressures: Could weigh on margins and financial performance.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

• The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored to individual investors.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on the report.
• The report may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.
• It is intended for distribution to specific institutional investors in the US and other regions.

Analyst Certification

• The research analyst certifies that the views expressed are based on personal analysis and not influenced by compensation.
• No trading or dealing in the stock covered in the report was done within 30 days prior to the report's issuance.

Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10%.
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10%.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the market benchmark.

Legal and Distribution Notes

• The report is distributed only to specific categories of investors in the UK, US, and Singapore.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the US and does not adhere to US research regulations.
• In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser.