2025-06-02-世界银行-欧洲和中亚_2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）_48页_5mb

Macro Poverty Outlook - April 2025 Summary

The April 2025 World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook report provides an in-depth analysis of economic conditions and poverty trends for the Europe and Central Asia region. It highlights varying growth projections, fiscal dynamics, and risks across multiple countries.

Key Findings

1. Economic Growth and Poverty

• Many countries in the region show projected growth moderation amid global uncertainties. Countries like Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine face significant growth deceleration risks, ranging from 4.5% to 6.5% depending on scenarios.
• Poverty reduction efforts have been mixed: countries like Tajikistan and Kosovo show promising declines in poverty rates (e.g., Tajikistan reduced rates by 4.3 pp between 2023-2024), while others like Georgia and Moldova face risks of slower poverty reduction due to uneven growth.

2. Fiscal and External Balances

• Most countries maintain deficits or improving fiscal positions, though several face challenges. For instance, Russia's fiscal deficit stood at 1.6% of GDP in 2024, while Türkiye's is projected to narrow to 4.2% by 2025. External accounts vary widely; Tajikistan’s improved to a 6.2% deficit in 2024, while others like Armenia deal with worsening deficits (up to 4.9%).
• Budgetary revenues outperformed expectations in many countries (e.g., Bulgaria recorded 35.9% of GDP in 2024), though fiscal consolidation is a recurring theme for many nations to adhere to EU or national fiscal rules.

3. Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation remains a concern, with several countries (notably Turkey and Russia) experiencing rates above 50% in the previous year. However, central banks have responded with policy rate adjustments, with mixed outcomes. For example, inflation in Croatia declined from 8.4% to 3% by 2024, but continues to pose risks.
• Monetarily, countries across the region are operating in relatively constrained environments—Central Banks maintain restrictive rates to contain inflation, though this weighs on growth.

4. Country-Specific Risks

• Countries like Russia and Ukraine continue to face significant geopolitical challenges: prolonged conflicts hamper growth and are driving fiscal pressures. Georgia’s upcoming parliamentary elections add political uncertainty. Many others face global trade disruptions, climate challenges, and weak private investment hindering long-term prosperity.

Conclusion

The report suggests a growth outlook mostly neutral or negative across the region, with uneven progress on poverty reduction. It emphasizes that macroeconomic stability must be balanced with targeted policies to support pro-poor growth. Implementation of structural reforms, diversification from extractive industries, and better labor market dynamics will be critical for sustainable economic convergence.