世界银行-宏观贫困展望_发展中国家的国别分析和预测_2025年春季会议（英）_305页_16mb

报告摘要

Macro Poverty Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Macro Poverty Outlook is a comprehensive report by the World Bank that provides country-by-country analysis and projections for poverty reduction in the developing world. The report includes data and forecasts for various regions and countries, focusing on economic growth, trade dynamics, fiscal and monetary policies, and their impact on poverty levels.

Main Regions and Countries Covered

East Asia and the Pacific: Includes Cambodia, Central Pacific Islands, China, Fiji, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, North Pacific Islands, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands, South Pacific Islands, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Viet Nam.
Europe and Central Asia: Includes Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Tajikistan, Türkiye, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
Latin America and the Caribbean: Includes Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay.
Middle East and North Africa: Includes Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
South Asia: Includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Includes a wide range of countries from Angola to Zimbabwe, with a focus on economic vulnerabilities and poverty reduction challenges.

Key Findings

Cambodia

Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 4.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, due to global trade policy shifts and uncertainty.
Poverty reduction is expected to continue, though unevenly distributed.
Key sectors like garments, travel goods, and footwear are vulnerable to global trade shifts.
Monetary policy has become more accommodative, leading to 17.9% y/y growth in broad money.
Fiscal deficit is estimated at 3.0% in 2024, with public debt at 27.3% of GDP.
Risks: Non-performing loans rising, climate vulnerability, and uneven recovery.

Central Pacific Islands

Growth is expected to moderate in 2025, with Kiribati at 3.9%, Nauru at 1.4%, and Tuvalu at 2.8%.
Poverty rates are projected to fall further in 2025 and 2026.
Fiscal sustainability is a concern, especially with Nauru's fiscal surplus potentially narrowing.
Climate change and volatility in revenues (especially fishing and grants) pose major risks.
Sovereign wealth funds are expected to decrease in value due to lower returns and asset valuations.

China

Growth is projected to moderate from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.0% in 2025 and 2026.
Poverty reduction is expected to slow, with the poverty rate at US$6.85/day projected to fall to 10.5% and 9.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Domestic demand is weak due to a prolonged property sector correction and low consumer confidence.
Government interventions include monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and property sector support.
Exports have been a key driver of growth, but their contribution is expected to decline in 2025.
Risks: Trade policy uncertainty, prolonged property sector weakness, and potential under-execution of fiscal policies due to local government financing constraints.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

Global trade shifts and uncertainty are major risks across the developing world.
Inflation remains a concern in several countries, especially those reliant on imports.
Vulnerabilities in labor-intensive export industries and fiscal sustainability are key issues.
Social safety nets and policy reforms are crucial for protecting vulnerable populations.
Diversification of economies, especially in the Central Pacific, is necessary to reduce dependence on volatile sectors like fishing and remittances.
Infrastructure development, human capital investment, and regulatory reforms are essential for long-term, inclusive growth.

Conclusion

The Macro Poverty Outlook highlights the uneven recovery from the pandemic and the impact of global economic conditions on poverty reduction in developing countries. While some regions and countries are expected to see gradual improvements, others face significant risks due to trade policy shifts, climate change, and economic vulnerabilities. The report underscores the importance of policy stability, fiscal responsibility, and economic diversification in promoting sustainable poverty reduction and growth.