拉丁美洲经济委员会-美国经济展望：2021年上半年（英）-39页_923kb

United States Economic Outlook: First Half of 2021

Core Content

The United States economy experienced a strong recovery in the first half of 2021, with real GDP growth reaching 6.6% in Q2 and 6.3% in Q1. This marked the fastest growth pace in 37 years and pushed the economy above its pre-pandemic level. Federal stimulus spending played a key role in this expansion, although the expiration of pandemic-era jobless benefits in early September posed a risk to the recovery.

Main Points

• Growth Drivers: The recovery was primarily driven by consumer spending, which increased by 11.9% in Q2, and nonresidential fixed investments. However, residential investment and private inventories dragged on growth.
• Economic Uncertainty: The resurgence of the Delta variant and supply chain disruptions caused a slowdown in economic activity and reduced consumer confidence. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped significantly in August.
• Labor Market: The labor market slowed in August, with only 235,000 jobs added, well below expectations. The leisure and hospitality sector saw no job growth, and government education payrolls were weak. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2%, but the labor force participation rate remained lower than pre-pandemic levels.
• Inflation: Inflationary pressures eased slightly in August, with the CPI rising by 0.3%, but the overall inflation trend remained a concern. Rising prices and the spread of the virus impacted consumer confidence.
• Policy Risks: Fiscal and monetary policy uncertainties loom, including the need to pass a short-term government funding extension and raise the debt ceiling. The shift from emergency measures to long-term structural reforms is ongoing.
• Gender and Racial Disparities: Women and minority groups (African American and Hispanic) continue to face disproportionate impacts on employment and labor force participation. Childcare and high-contact industries have exacerbated these challenges.
• Forecast Outlook: Market forecasts project a slowdown in the second half of 2021, with average growth of 5% in Q3 and 4.9% in Q4. The economy is expected to grow at 5.9% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022, but the outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing pandemic risks and policy challenges.

Key Information

• GDP Growth:
  • Q2 2021: 6.6% annualized rate
  • Q1 2021: 6.3% annualized rate
• Consumer Spending:
  • Q2: +11.9% (contributed 7.8% to GDP growth)
  • Q1: +11.4% (contributed 8.04% to GDP growth)
• Job Growth in August:
  • Nonfarm payroll: +235,000 (well below expectations)
  • Leisure and hospitality: 0 new jobs
  • Education: Weak government payrolls
• Unemployment Rate:
  • August 2021: 5.2%
  • Women: 4.8%
  • Men: 5.1%
• Labor Force Participation:
  • Women: 57.4% (down from 59.2% in February 2020)
  • Men: 69.9% (down from 71.6% in February 2020)
• Inflation:
  • CPI in August: 0.3%
  • July: 0.5%
  • June: 0.9%
• Forecasted Growth:
  • Q3 2021: 5.0% (average)
  • Q4 2021: 4.9% (average)
  • 2021: 5.9%
  • 2022: 3.9%
• Policy Uncertainties:
  • Need to extend government funding and raise the debt ceiling
  • Legislative discussions on $4 trillion in new fiscal stimulus
  • Federal Reserve's challenge in deciding when to reduce monetary stimulus

Summary of Contributions to GDP Growth

• Positive Contributions:
  • Consumer spending: +7.8%
  • Nonresidential fixed investment: +1.21%
  • Exports: +0.7%
• Negative Contributions:
  • Residential investment: -0.58%
  • Private inventories: -1.3%
  • Federal government spending: -0.33%
  • Net exports: -0.24%

Risks and Challenges

• Economic Risks:
  • Resurgence of the Delta variant
  • Supply chain disruptions
  • Uncertainty in fiscal and monetary policy
• Policy Risks:
  • Potential government shutdown
  • Debt ceiling crisis
  • Legislative gridlock over new stimulus measures

Conclusion

The U.S. economy showed strong growth in the first half of 2021, but the pace is expected to slow in the second half due to the Delta variant and other challenges. The labor market and consumer confidence have been negatively affected, with disparities among different demographic groups. The outlook remains uncertain, and policy decisions will play a crucial role in shaping the future trajectory of the economy.