2021-10-17-拉丁美洲经济委员会-美国经济展望_2021年上半年_39页_1mb

报告摘要

The U.S. economy rebounded strongly in the first half of 2021, with real GDP growth at 6.3% in Q1 and 6.6% in Q2, driven by federal stimulus and vaccination efforts, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
Growth was fueled by consumer spending, investment, and state/local government spending, though supply chain issues and inventory adjustments offset some gains.
The labor market showed uneven recovery; Q2 GDP contributions highlight strength in consumption (7.8%) but weakness in residential investment (-0.58%) and inventories (-1.3%).
Inflation moderated slightly, with CPI rising 0.3% in August, but remains above the Fed's 2% target due to pandemic-related disruptions, potentially raising concerns about transitory vs. persistent pressures.
Federal Reserve policies are debated, with tapering not announced in September; meanwhile, fiscal support is fading, and large infrastructure bills are advancing.
Risk factors include the Delta variant, political gridlock on government funding and debt ceiling, and potential economic slowdown in the second half.

Economic Growth: GDP expansion was the fastest in three decades, with consumption and services leading growth, but supply constraints in industries like auto manufacturing could hinder recovery.
Labor Market: Employment gains slowed significantly in August 2021, with the unemployment rate at 5.2%, but disparities persist across gender, race, and education, with women and minorities disproportionately affected.
Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation moderated but stayed elevated; the Fed is monitoring it and may delay rate hikes. Fiscal policy shifts toward long-term investments, with Democrats pushing large spending bills, though bipartisan conflicts pose risks.
External Sector: Trade deficit narrowed temporarily due to reduced imports amid Delta concerns, but overall GDP growth faces challenges from domestic demand cooling.

Sustained U.S. growth supported positive spillovers to LAC trade and investment, with record bond issuance in the region.
However, potential U.S. policy tightening (e.g., interest rate hikes) could increase borrowing costs and debt servicing for vulnerable LAC economies.

Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 range from 3.8% to 5.9%, but risks from the Delta variant, supply shortages, and political uncertainty could dampen the outlook.
A timely resolution to the debt ceiling and government funding is critical to avoid a shutdown and sustain the recovery.

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