世界发展银行-Russia-Economic-Report,-No.-43,-July-2020-_-Recession-and-Growth-Under-the-Shadow-of-a-Pandemic_80页_4mb

报告摘要

Russia Economic Report July 2020 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of Russia's economic situation during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the recessionary impact, policy responses, and implications for the education system.

Key Economic Developments (Part 1)

Global Recession: The pandemic triggered a sharp global economic contraction, with global GDP estimated to fall by -11.1% in Q1 2020 (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rate) and a projected overall drop of 5.2% in 2020.
Russia's Economic Slide: Russia experienced a significant slowdown, with GDP contracting by 12.1% y/y in April and 10.9% y/y in May. Industrial production and key sectors like manufacturing, mining, and transport were severely impacted.
Balance of Payments: The current account weakened to 5.5% of GDP in Q1 2020, down from 8.9% in the same period last year, mainly due to the contraction in energy exports.
Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) adopted an accommodative monetary policy, reducing the policy rate from 6.25% in February to 4.5% in June.
Financial Sector Vulnerabilities: Non-performing loans (NPLs) remained high, and the ruble depreciated by 11% since the start of the year due to global risk aversion and oil price slumps.
Fiscal Policy: Fiscal revenues faced strain from low oil prices and the pandemic. The government introduced a support package of 4% of GDP, including healthcare measures, tax deferrals, and subsidies for SMEs.
Labor Market Impact: Unemployment rose to 6.1% in May 2020, up from 4.5% in May 2019. Real wages and disposable incomes declined, with significant impacts on lower-income groups and informal workers (estimated at 15-21% of the workforce).

Economic Outlook (Part 2)

A deep recession is expected for Russia in 2020, with real GDP growth projected at -6%.
The impact of the crisis varies across population groups, with those in retail, tourism, and services sectors most affected.
The report warns of potential long-term effects such as learning loss, worsening health conditions, and permanent job and skill losses.

Education in Russia (Part 3)

Importance of Education: Education is seen as a crucial factor for long-term economic growth. Russia's education system has been a focus of government policy to enhance quality and competitiveness.
Government Policies: The government has emphasized improving education outcomes and increasing the focus on STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) subjects.
Impact of COVID-19: School closures have led to potential learning loss, particularly in reading, if schools remain closed for five months. The report highlights the need for effective online learning support.
Challenges in Higher Education: Russia's higher education system is concentrated in elite institutions, limiting internationalization and accessibility for a broader population.
Performance Metrics: Russia's education system shows some strengths in certain areas, such as collaborative problem-solving, but also significant skill shortages reported by employers.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Global GDP fell sharply in Q1 2020.
Figure 2: Global goods trade contracted due to supply chain disruptions and weak demand.
Figure 3: Global stock markets recovered, but borrowing costs stabilized.
Figure 4: Google mobility data indicated reduced economic activity.
Figure 5: China's GDP fell by 6.8% in Q1 2020.
Figure 6: Brent crude oil prices dropped to a multi-decade low.
Figure 7: Oil demand is expected to decline by 18% in Q2 2020.
Figure 8: U.S. oil rig count fell to a 10-year low.
Figure 9: The pandemic reached Russia later than many other countries.
Figure 10: High-frequency indicators suggested continued growth in January-February 2020.
Figure 11: GDP growth in Q1 2020 was not significantly affected by the pandemic.
Figure 12: Export volumes for many commodities fell in Q1 2020.
Figure 13: Electricity consumption dropped in April, adjusted for temperature.
Figure 14: Growth weakened in all sectors except agriculture.
Figure 15: PMI indexes reached record lows in April.
Figure 16: SMEs declined, particularly in the Central Federal District.
Figure 17: Employee numbers in SMEs declined but showed some recovery in May.
Figure 18: Current account weakened to 5.5% of GDP in Q1 2020.
Figure 19: Commodity prices fell in early 2020.
Figure 20: Total goods exports fell by 19.8% y/y in January-April 2020.
Figure 21: Services exports also declined significantly.
Figure 22: Exports to the EU, CIS, and Asia dropped, while imports declined modestly.
Figure 23: Inflation rose in March 2020 for the first time in a year.
Figure 24: Financial market risks increased, affecting the ruble and bond spreads.
Figure 25: Deposits remain the main funding source for banks.
Figure 26: High NPL levels in the financial sector.
Figure 27: Credit and financial indicators remained stable at the start of the pandemic.
Figure 28: Credit growth was mixed during the crisis.
Figure 29: Corporate loans accounted for 54% of the banking sector's portfolio.
Figure 30: Manufacturing, trade, and transportation were the most vulnerable sectors in corporate lending.
Figure 31: Industrial production contracted in April-May 2020.
Figure 32: PMI indexes reached record lows in April.
Figure 33: Fiscal support measures totaled 4% of GDP.
Figure 34: Russia's support package is relatively small compared to advanced economies.
Figure 35: Poverty rates are expected to rise due to the crisis.
Figure 36: Social protection measures could mitigate the increase in poverty.
Figure 37: The education system's performance is noted, with some high performers in learning outcomes.
Figure 38: Russia's performance in collaborative problem-solving is highlighted.
Figure 39: Potential learning loss due to school closures.
Figure 40: The availability of an effective online learning support platform is low.

Key Tables

Table 1: Balance of payments accounts, in USD billion.
Table 2: Fiscal support measures total 3.9% of GDP.
Table 3: Poverty (cumulative) data.
Table 4: Major macroeconomic indicators for 2020.
Table 5: Actual and projected poverty rates by scenarios.
Table 6: Skill shortages reported by employers.
Table 7: Policies for different regions in Russia.
Table 8: Progress of Russian universities in international rankings.

Key Boxes

Box 1: SMEs are more vulnerable to the crisis due to their reliance on services and limited resilience.
Box 2: Russia and the EAEU imposed restrictive trade policies in response to the pandemic.
Box 3: Financial-sector support measures were introduced to stabilize the economy.
Box 4: SME support measures were announced to ease the crisis impact.
Box 5: Education is a key component of Russia's human capital development.
Box 6: Methodology for estimating learning loss due to school closures.

Conclusion

The report outlines the severe economic impact of the pandemic on Russia, including a deep recession, weakened current account, increased financial sector vulnerabilities, and rising unemployment. It emphasizes the importance of education in long-term growth and highlights the need for stronger social protection reforms to mitigate the crisis's effects on the poor and vulnerable. While the government's response is within its fiscal rule framework, the effectiveness of these measures depends on implementation and the duration of the crisis.

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