穆迪：_2018Q4中国影子银行报告-2019.3-62页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of Moody's Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor

Core Content

The shadow banking sector in China experienced a significant contraction in 2018, shrinking by RMB4.3 trillion to reach RMB61.3 trillion at the end of the year, the lowest level since 2016. This marked the first annual contraction in shadow banking assets over the past decade, both in absolute terms and as a share of GDP, which fell to 68% from 87% two years ago.

The contraction was concentrated in core shadow banking activities, including trust loans, entrusted loans, and undiscounted bankers' acceptances, which collectively declined by RMB2.9 trillion. The interconnectedness between financial institutions also declined, as seen in the 63% drop in WMPs purchased by interbank investors and a 34% contraction in commercial banks' net claims on NBFIs.

Key Trends

1. Credit Conditions

Monetary policy relaxation led to easier liquidity and corporate funding conditions, but credit growth remained weak and focused on short-term instruments.
Formal bank lending accounted for the majority of new credit supply in 2018, and the rotation of credit back to banks' loan books is expected to continue in 2019.
Risk aversion among banks and bond investors remains high due to economic slowdown.
Corporate bond yield spreads for issuers with lower domestic credit ratings are still elevated, indicating continued difficulty in accessing new funding.
Small and midsize enterprises (SMEs) faced greater disruption in credit availability, with supportive measures only partially alleviating their distress.
Regional disparities in credit supply were observed, with some northern provinces experiencing a -2.9% decline in net shadow credit supply relative to GDP.

2. Financing Conditions for Corporates

Short-term bill financing helped ease liquidity pressure for some private-owned enterprises (POEs), especially micro and small enterprises (MSEs).
MSE loan growth by state-owned banks declined significantly, while smaller regional banks continued to outperform.
Corporate bond issuance showed a slight increase in 2018, but spreads remained high for weaker issuers.
Property developers continued to rely on offshore bond markets, with USD-denominated bonds rising by 35% in 2018.

3. Composition and Trends of Shadow Banking

Broad shadow banking components (including WMPs and AMPs) saw a 11% contraction in 2018, reversing the 15% growth in 2017.
Core shadow banking activities (trust loans, entrusted loans, and undiscounted bankers' acceptances) fell by 10.9% in 2018.
Outstanding WMPs increased to RMB32.0 trillion, with on-balance sheet WMPs driving the growth.
Interbank WMPs continued to decline, reaching RMB1.2 trillion in 2018, down from RMB3.2 trillion in 2017.
Structured deposits by small and midsize banks increased in 2019, though they are more expensive than demand deposits, potentially affecting profitability.
Trust sector assets continued to shift toward the property sector, but asset quality risks rose due to economic slowdown, with default-prone assets increasing by 55% to RMB216 billion.

4. Interconnectedness and Spillover Risks to Banks

Commercial banks' net claims on NBFIs fell to RMB7.4 trillion in 2018, down 3% from the end of September and 40% from the peak in 2017.
Small and midsize banks reduced their reliance on wholesale funding, with the share of wholesale funding in their total funding sources dropping by 2.5 percentage points in 2019.
NCD issuance by smaller banks decreased by 2% in 2018, and the PBOC included these in the MPA framework starting in Q1 2019.
NBFIs increasingly turned to large and midsize banks for funding, with NBFIs' interbank funding rising by 51% in 2018 compared to a 26% decline for small banks.

Regulatory and Policy Updates

The 2019 government work report aims to maintain stable leverage and align credit growth with nominal GDP growth.
The PBOC introduced targeted monetary policy tools, such as the TMLF and CBS facility, to support POEs and MSEs.
Regulatory scrutiny on shadow banking and interconnectedness remains strong, with ongoing efforts to reduce systemic risks.

Outlook

Despite moderation in regulatory crackdowns, a strong rebound in shadow credit supply is unlikely in 2019 due to continued focus on financial system risks.
Credit growth is expected to remain subdued, with formal bank lending continuing to offset the decline in shadow credit.
Policy measures are differentiating credit access, benefiting stronger credit-rated enterprises while weaker ones still face funding challenges.