2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Quota_FormulaData_Update_and_Further_Considerations_40页_1mb

IMF Policy Paper: Quota Formula – Data Update and Further Considerations (August 2014)

Executive Summary

The IMF staff has updated the quota database through 2012 and incorporated the 2011 International Comparison Program (ICP) global estimates of purchasing power parity (PPP) rates. This update reflects broader country coverage and methodological improvements, leading to a higher aggregate share of emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) in global PPP GDP (58.1% vs. 52.8% based on 2005 ICP data).

Core Content

• Data Update: The quota database was updated by one year to 2012 and integrated the 2011 ICP PPP estimates. This resulted in a 2.1 percentage point (pp) increase in the calculated quota share (CQS) of EMDCs to 47.4%, compared to the 2013 update.
• PPP GDP: The 2011 ICP PPP estimates show a significant increase in EMDCs' share of global PPP GDP. This increase is attributed to the broader coverage and methodological improvements of the ICP.
• Openness: The data update does not significantly alter the broad outcomes of earlier staff work regarding openness. The impact of openness on CQS remains consistent.
• Variability: The share of EMDCs in global variability has also seen some gains, although the impact is less pronounced than that of PPP GDP and openness.
• Reserves: The share of EMDCs in global reserves decreased slightly, mainly due to a decline in China's share.

Main Points

• Asia: Recorded the largest gains in EMDCs' CQS, with significant increases in China, India, and Indonesia.
• Advanced Economies (AEs): The largest AEs (US, Japan, UK) experienced the largest reductions in their CQS, with the US seeing the largest decline (-0.7 pp).
• Out-of-Lineness: AEs are over-represented and EMDCs under-represented by 5.1 pp, compared to 2.9 pp in the previous update. The number of underrepresented members increased to 74.
• China: Accounted for almost half of the underrepresentation shortfall in EMDCs.
• Quota Formula: The current formula is used to calculate CQS, which is based on GDP, openness, variability, and reserves with a compression factor applied. No staff proposals for reform were made at this stage.

Key Information

• Quota Variables: The current formula uses 0.50 weight for GDP, 0.30 for openness, 0.15 for variability, and 0.05 for reserves. The compression factor is 0.95.
• Illustrative Simulations: The paper presents simulations of possible quota formula reforms but notes that they are purely illustrative and do not represent formal proposals.
• IMFC Recommendations: The IMFC has called for agreement on a new quota formula as part of the 15th General Quota Review.

Quota Shares by Major Groups

Summary of Changes

• China: Increased its CQS to 10.5%.
• India: Increased its CQS to 3.0%.
• Korea: Increased its CQS to 1.9%.
• Indonesia: Increased its CQS to 1.3%.
• Saudi Arabia: Increased its CQS to 1.7%.
• Russia: Increased its CQS to 2.8%.
• Brazil: Increased its CQS to 2.4%.
• United States: Declined to 14.9%.
• United Kingdom: Declined to 3.5%.
• Japan: Declined to 6.0%.
• France: Declined to 3.3%.
• Germany: Declined to 5.3%.
• Italy: Declined to 2.7%.
• Canada: Declined to 2.2%.
• EU 28: Declined to 28.4%.
• LICs: Increased to 3.0%.

Concluding Remarks

The paper highlights the ongoing evolution of the quota formula and the impact of data updates on the distribution of quotas. It underscores the need for a broader context in the work on the 15th General Quota Review to reach a consensus on a new formula. The simulations presented are intended to illustrate possible reforms and do not constitute formal proposals. The overall trend continues to show EMDCs gaining more representation, with significant changes in Asia and other regions.