大西洋理事会-新冠疫情时代及今后的贸易政策重点（英文）-2020.12-30页_6mb

Trade Policy Priorities for a COVID-19 Era and Beyond Summary

Core Content

This report, authored by Barbara C. Matthews and published by the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, examines the evolving landscape of global trade policy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and outlines key priorities for the future. It highlights the need for the multilateral trading system to adapt to new economic realities, particularly the rise of the digital economy and the challenges posed by the pandemic.

Main Views

• The Bretton Woods System is Aging: The multilateral trading framework established after World War II is not well-suited for the digital economy and has shown signs of obsolescence before the pandemic.
• Pandemic Exposes Systemic Vulnerabilities: The crisis has disrupted global supply chains, increased the importance of diversification, and highlighted the limitations of current trade agreements.
• Digital Economy is Reshaping Trade: Services, especially digital services, are now the dominant form of trade among advanced economies, challenging traditional trade paradigms.
• Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) are a Growing Concern: Regulatory standards and government policies play a critical role in shaping trade, and NTBs are more complex to liberalize than tariffs.
• China's Role in the WTO is Controversial: China's accession to the WTO in the early 21st century has been criticized for not fully aligning with market economy principles, contributing to global trade tensions.
• Transatlantic Leadership is Crucial: The U.S. and EU have the potential to lead in reforming the WTO and creating more flexible trade frameworks that can address modern economic challenges.

Key Information

I. Introduction

• The global trading system is at a crossroads as it faces the dual challenges of the digital economy and the pandemic.
• The multilateral trading system, designed for the 20th century, is struggling to keep pace with modern economic realities.
• The pandemic has led to export bans, supply chain disruptions, and increased government support for the corporate sector.
• The transatlantic community has an opportunity to lead in reimagining the global trade framework and strengthening the WTO.

II. Background

A. Bretton Woods: History and Concepts

• The Bretton Woods system was created to support a global economy based on interdependence and free trade.
• It was designed with three pillars: reconstruction, emergency liquidity assistance, and trade.
• The system failed to be established during the Cold War due to ideological differences, particularly between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
• China's accession to the WTO in the 21st century has been controversial due to its non-market economic practices.

B. The Services and Digital Economy Challenge

• Trade in services has surpassed trade in goods in value, especially in the digital economy.
• The General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) has not been updated to address digital economy issues such as data localization and privacy.
• The Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) negotiations have stalled due to divergent regulatory standards among WTO members.
• Bilateral and regional agreements are increasingly being used to address digital trade issues, as no global consensus exists.

C. The Impact of the Pandemic

• The pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and highlighted the need for diversification.
• Export bans on essential goods like PPE and medicines have exposed the fragility of the current system.
• Governments have implemented large fiscal and monetary stimulus packages, which have influenced trade policy and increased state support for businesses.
• Lockdowns have severely impacted sectors like aviation and logistics, causing significant trade volume drops.

III. Near-Term Policy Priorities

1. Accelerate Supply-Chain Digitization: The digital economy is reshaping trade, and the system must evolve to support cross-border digital services and their downstream physical requirements.
2. Accelerate Supply-Chain Diversification: Diversifying suppliers and trade routes can reduce dependency on key nodes like China and enhance economic resilience.
3. Promote Standards Interoperability: Harmonizing regulatory standards across countries is essential to facilitate cross-border trade and reduce NTBs.
4. Constructive Engagement with China: The U.S. and EU should work together on trade issues with China, such as data privacy and intellectual property, to create a more balanced and effective policy approach.

Conclusion

• The global trading system is at a critical juncture, requiring reform to address the challenges of the digital economy and the pandemic.
• The transatlantic partnership can play a pivotal role in shaping the next generation of trade policy frameworks.
• The recommendations focus on pragmatic and achievable goals that align with existing trends and can strengthen the multilateral system without requiring immediate WTO reform.

About the Author

• Barbara C. Matthews is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, focusing on trade policy and global economic governance.

References

• The report references historical and contemporary trade agreements, including the GATT, GATS, TiSA, and the "Osaka Track" e-commerce negotiations.
• It highlights the role of the WTO, IMF, and World Bank in shaping global trade policy and responding to economic crises.