2025-06-03-Jefferies-海克玛制药（HIK）_CMD提供未来增长愿景_17页_1mb

Market Context:

• Jefferies upgrades Hikma's rating to Buy, raising the price target to 3,100p (up from 2,400p), implying +21% upside.
• 2024-27 revenue growth guidance is 6-8% CAGR, adjusted EBIT ahead of sales.

Key Growth Drivers:

1. Injectables Segment: Xellia site expansion expected to drive volume growth.
2. US Rx Revenue: Primarily driven by CMO business and complex generics, with >20% revenue contribution by 2030.
3. Specialty Focus: MENA remains core market, but US generics face price erosion, while CMO margins should improve.

Valuation & Sensitivity:

• Base Case Valuation:
  • 2025 EPS $228.8, P/E 15.3x.
  • SOTP Value: $8,948, Price Target (JP) 3,100p (+21% from current level).
• Revenue Outliers:
  At $5bn 2030 revenue (vs group’s target), EBITDA grows ~15% (cAGR 7-9% vs 6-8% sales growth).

Risks & Downside:

• Missed Guidance: Potential for low-volume US generic price erosion or Xellia ramp-up delays.
• CMO Competition: Intense pricing in the US generics market.
• Consensus vs. Analysis: Consensus forecasts lower top-line growth than guidance, highlighting upside if Hikma exceeds expectations.

Recommendation:
BUY based on a favourable risk/reward profile and visible growth potential, particularly in injectables and CMO activities.