2025-05-21-Jefferies-康维德（CTEC）_提前完成计划_15页_1mb

ConvaTec Equity Research Summary

ConvaTec, a leading global company providing products for chronic condition management, is the subject of this Jefferies Equity Research report dated May 22, 2025. The equity research department delivers a positive outlook, with a "Buy" rating and an increased price target of €325 from €310, reflecting a 18% upside.

Key financial highlights

• Revenue: The company raised its 2025 FY guidance to +5.5% - 7.0% ex-IM Organic Sales Growth (OSG), supported by strong performance in Europe and new product launches like ConvaFoam. Overall, revenue is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.
• EBIT & EPS: Adjusted EBIT margin remains guided at 22.0% - 22.5%, including a ~20 basis points headwind from FX. Earnings Per Share (EPS) is forecasted to increase by 5% in 2025 to $0.177.
• Valuation: The price target increase to €325 implies a valuation upgrade, with shares expected to trade at ~24.5x P/E 2025e. The valuation is derived from a DCF model and peer multiples.

Segment Performance

• Advanced Wound Care (AWC): Organic growth slowed due to higher R&D investment, but the outlook for ConvaFoam provides future catalysts.
• Ostomy Care (OC): Europe growth accelerated in H2 2024, supported by Esteem Body. Gains are expected to continue.
• Continence & Critical Care (CCC): Hydrophilic product growth remains strong, contributing positively. GCA Men is set to launch in 2026, adding depth to the portfolio.
• Infusion Care (IC): Led by strong demand for infusion sets. Medtronic and Ypsomed's organizational changes could foster collaboration and innovation.
• Key products driving revenue include ConvaFoam, Esteem Body, and GentleCath Air.

Risks & Opportunities

• LCD Impact: The delay in the LCD project provides short-term relief but maintains underlying business momentum. Final impact details are pending policy changes.
• Competition & Market: Growth outside US and Europe (including China) faces specific challenges, despite positive momentum. Standalone performance varies by division.
• Innovation pipeline: High investment exists, but risks include regulatory hurdles, integration delays, and new competitor entries (e.g., GLP-1 analogues for infusion care).
• Geopolitical/FX: Argentinian ("blocked") sales remain a focus area, and European dynamics are under observation.
• Valuation: The stock trades at an implied ~28.5x P/E, ~9.5% below the sector average, presenting potential upside based on strong fundamentals.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed align with the "Buy" rating, reflecting confidence in ConvaTec's broad-based growth across chronic care markets and operational improvements.