英文_Jefferies_卡地纳健康（CAH）_投资者日观点增强了我们对卡地纳健康的信心_11页_779kb

Jefferies Equity Research provides a "Buy" rating for Cardinal Health (CAH) with a price target of $190, up from the current price of $162.41, reflecting a 17% upside potential. Management's Investor Day emphasized a new Long-Term Roadmap (LRP) aiming for sustained EPS growth of 12-14% through FY28, solidifying the company's positive outlook in a previously high-growth scenario. This revised guidance highlights focus on growing MSO and biopharma solutions segments, including the Specialty Alliance business, which is poised to aid expansion in non-Oncology verticals and drive margin improvements. The core strategy leverages these areas to fuel durable stock momentum, supported by expected favorable buybacks and strong cash generation. Notably, approximately $5B remains for unaccounted capital deployment through initiatives like M&A or new contract wins, beyond the EPS growth projections.

Key growth drivers include:

• Pharma segment: +8-10% revenue CAGR and +7-9% Adjusted OIBDA CAGR.
• Other business: +16-18% revenue CAGR and +15-17% Adjusted OIBDA CAGR.
• GMPD segment: Targeted $140M Adjusted OIBDA by FY26, with incremental $50M per year through FY27 and FY28.

Valuation is supported by a normalized Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimate increase and a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) target of around 21.5x for CY25E. However, risks include regulatory pressures on drug pricing, accelerated generic deflation, and employee engagement/diversity challenges. The company's sustainability targets and supply chain emissions are closely monitored, posing potential issues if not met. Overall, the report underscores CAH's resilience and strong outlook, maintaining a buy recommendation amid favorable growth prospects.