2025-06-17-Jefferies-卡地纳健康（CAH）_投资者日观点（经过验证的增长驱动因素）增强了我们对卡地纳健康（Cardinal_Health）的信心_11页_384kb

Equity Research Summary: Cardinal Health (CAH)

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: $162.41 current, $190 target with 17% upside
• Conviction: Incrementally positive after Investor Day, with management maintaining EPS growth expectations at +12-14% through FY28.

Key Highlights

• New Long-Range Plan (LRP): Management announced a fresh LRP with revised growth targets: Pharma segment at +8-10% Rev CAGR and +7-9% AOI CAGR; Other segment at +16-18% Rev CAGR and +15-17% AOI CAGR; GMPD segment aiming for $140MM AOI in FY26, escalating to $210MM by FY28.
• Strategic Focuses: Emphasis on growing MSO and biopharma solutions, with new Specialty Alliance business aiding non-Oncology verticals. Biopharma Solutions expected to grow (>20% top-line CAGR to ~$1B by FY28), driving margin improvements. Nuclear business in Other segment remains a key opportunity.
• GMPD Turnaround: Ongoing efforts to improve performance, with free cash flow projections.

Financial Outlook

• Revenue Growth: Steady increase from FY25 to FY28, driven by integration of assets and operational efficiencies.
• EPS and Margins: EPS expected to rise from $8.18 in FY2025 to $10.39 in FY2027. Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion continuing, supported by cost control and brand sales growth.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF): Projected to generate $11B in Adj. FCF from FY26-28, with a buyback program targeting ~$2.25B annually.

Risks

• Regulatory Actions: Ongoing drug pricing reforms and generic deflation could impact margins and revenue.
• Market Dependencies: Competitive pressures in healthcare services and shifts in Rx distribution could affect growth drivers.
• Valuation: While upside is warranted based on strong outlook, current multiple of ~21.5x 2025 EPS may face scrutiny from market conditions.