2016-03-14-奥纬咨询-Carrier_Trend_Report_-_January_2016_24页_865kb

Carrier Trend Report Summary - January 2016

Report Overview

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting conducted the Carrier Trend Survey to research health insurance and HMO markets. This report summarizes January 2016 trends used for developing rates for approximately 138 million coverage members, reflecting pricing trends for various insurance products.

Key Findings

Group Medical

• HMO Products: Median trend increased 2.20% (most significant change), bringing it closer to other group products.
• Indemnity Products: Median trend at 8.80% remained the highest among group medical lines.
• PPO/POS Products: Experienced marginal changes, with POS having the lowest median trend at 7.00%.

Prescription Drug

• Median trend decreased slightly to 11.20%.
• Despite the median decrease, sample and weighted averages increased, and the trend had previously increased four consecutive surveys.

Dental

• Group dental indemnity median trend decreased 1 percentage point.
• PPO and DHMO trends remained stable.
• All dental products showed relatively stable trends over multiple surveys.

Vision

• Group vision indemnity and prepaid median trends remained unchanged.
• Group vision PPO median trend decreased over a percentage point, potentially due to membership changes.
• Fluctuations noted in historical trends for smaller lines like Prepaid.

Medicare Supplements

• Med trends slightly decreased for products with drug coverage.
• Med trend increased slightly for products without drug coverage.
• Both groups converged to a 4.00% median range.

Medicare Advantage & Part D

• MA trends decreased for both with and without drug coverage.
• Medicare Part D saw significant increases for the third consecutive survey, reaching its highest ever median trend of 9.95%.

High Deductible Health Plans (HSA)

• Group medical HSA with drug coverage median trend decreased.
• Group medical HSA without drug coverage increased.
• Individual HSA trends mixed, but all HSA med trends were between 7.85% and 9.00%.

Individual Medical

• All individual medical med trends decreased from July 2015 levels.
• Individual medical indemnity continued to show the highest med trend at 8.35%.

Other Lines

• Stop Loss: Both $50,000 and $150,000 median trends decreased.
• ASO Fees: Median trend remained stable at 3.00%.
• Medicaid: Median trend decreased to 3.20%.

Exposures

The participating carriers represent significant market exposure, covering millions of members across various insurance lines including group medical, individual medical, prescription drug, dental, vision, Medicare supplements, Medicare Advantage, and specific risk products.

Methodology Note

This report summarizes aggregated and percentile-stratified survey responses. Trend figures reflect insurance carriers' stated pricing assumptions and are not audited for accuracy.