2015-02-27-奥纬咨询-Carrier_Trend_Report_-_January_2015_24页_389kb

Carrier Trend Report Summary (January 2015)

Report Overview
Oliver Wyman published this report based on the Carrier Trend Survey to analyze health insurance and HMO market trends. It summarizes pricing trends used by carriers for January 2015, impacting approximately 110.5 million group members and 15.8 million individual policyholders. Trends are presented by product type (group medical, prescription drug, dental, vision, Medicare supplement, Medicare Advantage, HSA, individual medical, stop-loss, etc.). Results are aggregated and stratified by percentile, displaying the range of trends from highest (100th percentile) to lowest (0th percentile) reported.

Executive Summary (Key Changes from July 2014 Survey)

• Group Medical: Median trends for Indemnity (8.70%), PPO (8.06%), and POS (7.50%) slightly increased, while the HMO median trend (6.60%) saw the largest increase of the quarter for group medical. Overall changes were minimal for group medical products, with trends ranging from 6.60% to 16.79%.
• Prescription Drug: The median trend increased significantly to 11.00%, marking the largest increase in several years after three consecutive quarterly increases.
• Group Dental: Median trends largely remained stable, hovering around 5.00% (Indemnity: 5.00%, PPO: 5.00%, DHMO: 4.50%).
• Group Vision: Median trends for Indemnity remained stable (4.00%). PPO (3.16%) and Prepaid (5.00%) both increased.
• Medicare Supplement: Both "with drug" (4.16%) and "without drug" (3.20%) median trends slightly decreased. "With drug" median trend remained about 1 percentage point higher than "without drug".
• Medicare Advantage & Part D: MA trends continued decreasing (overall medians 3.25%, 2.48% without/with drug). The previously decreasing Medicare Part D Standard Plan median trend increased by 2.90 percentage points to 6.50%. MA decreases continued across product types.
• High Deductible Health Plans (HSA): HSA medians generally held steady or changed minimally. Dual-coverage plan medians (Individual medical HSA: 8.05%, Group medical HSA: 7.50%) softened, while single-coverage medians increased.
• Individual Medical: Indemnity median trend (8.30%) remained high; HMO, POS, and PPO medians decreased.
• Stop-Loss: Both $50k and $150k Stop-Loss medians increased slightly, remaining relatively stable since 2008.
• Medicaid: Median trend increased to 4.40%. Medicaid trends were noted to fluctuate partly due to low provider numbers.
• ASO Fees: Median trend remained stable at 3.00% since 2010.

Historical Context (Overall Trend Insight)
The report analyzed median trends from January 2005 onwards, showing groups like Medicare Part D and stop-loss maintained stability, while others experienced fluctuations and recent increases (Prescription drug, specific group vision, HSA without drug) or decreases (MA). HSA with drug coverage remained at higher end medians.

Disclaimer
This report reflects carrier self-reported data without verification and is provided as a sample of current trends, not an endorsement for specific application.

By Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.