20141022-巴黎银行证券-SPOTLIGHT_ON_ASIA_20页_1mb

报告摘要

BNP PARIBAS 2014 Summary

Core Content

BNP Paribas released a report on 22 October 2014, analyzing various sectors and companies in Asia, including Singapore, Hong Kong/China, Japan, and India. The report includes stock recommendations, target prices, and market outlooks, with a focus on the impact of economic conditions and industry-specific factors.

Main Views

Singapore

City Developments (CIT SP): Upgraded to HOLD from Reduce with an unchanged target price of SGD9.41. The stock is at fair value, considering the challenges in the residential market and uncertain hotel outlook. The stock price has fallen 9.6% in six months.
Singapore Real Estate: Expected to undergo a slow bottoming-out process in 2015. Home price declines could delay policy relaxation, and landbanking challenges persist. KPLD (BUY) is highlighted as the top pick due to its proactive recycling model.
Keppel Corp (KEP SP): Maintained BUY with a target price of SGD12.50. Strong 3Q14 results aligned with BNPP forecasts.
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP): Maintained HOLD with a target price of SGD1.25. Expected 6% revenue growth for 2QFY15.

Hong Kong/China

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK): Downgraded to HOLD from Buy with a revised target price of HKD12.70. Earnings are highly dependent on crude prices, which have fallen, leading to lower profit estimates. The stock is at a 24% discount to China peers and 25% to global peers.
China Consumer: Expected continued weakness in raw milk prices, with a forecast of a 10% drop in 2015. Substitution with imported milk powder is a key risk. The report also mentions the impact of global milk powder prices and government policies on feed costs.

Asia Oil & Gas/Services

Crude Awakening: Lower estimates due to reduced crude price forecasts. The 3Q14 results season is likely to disappoint. Sinopec is seen as better positioned than peers, while India PSUs may take profit due to lack of new catalysts. Reliance Industries (RIL IN) is noted as a potential value play.

Macro-Economics & Equity Strategy

China GDP: Q3 2014 growth slowed to 7.3% y/y, the lowest since Q2 2009. The slowdown was attributed to weak IP and FAI growth, despite a rebound in IP growth in September. The report questions the accuracy of the growth figures and highlights structural improvements in the service sector and energy efficiency.

Key Information

Company Research Highlights

MediaTek (2454 TT): Maintained HOLD with a target price of TWD460.00. Expected in-line 3Q results with seasonal weakness in 4Q.
Teco Electric & Machinery (1504 TT): Maintained BUY with a target price of TWD36.00. Lower sales estimates but improved home margin.
Daum Communications (035720 KS): Maintained HOLD with a target price of KRW150,000. Positive takeaways from analyst day.

BNP Paribas Events

Third Annual India Tech. Tour: 19-21 Nov 14
BNP Paribas 2nd APAC Industrials Conference: 1 Dec 14
Company Roadshows:
- Hong Kong: Kingdee (268 HK), Hana Financial Group (086790 KS), Samchuly Bicycle (024950 KS)
- Korea: Yumeshin Holdings (2362 JP), Samchuly Bicycle (024950 KS)
- Singapore: Land & Houses (LH TB), Hana Financial Group (086790 KS), Samchuly Bicycle (024950 KS)
- Japan: Fuji Kyuko Co Ltd (9010 JP)
- Europe: Lung Yen Life Services (5530 TW), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Far EasTone (4904 TT), Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)
- US: Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)

Key Stock Data

City Developments (CIT SP):
- 2014E P/E: 12.5x, P/B: 1.0x, Yield: 0.7%
- Target Price: SGD9.41
CNOOC Ltd (883 HK):
- 2014E P/E: 8.3x, P/B: 1.2x, Yield: 4.2%
- Target Price: HKD12.70
Sinopec (386 HK):
- 2014E P/E: 8.3x, P/B: 9.4x, Yield: 0.3%
- Target Price: HKD8.00
Keppel Corp (KEP SP):
- 2014E P/E: 9.8x, P/B: 1.7x, Yield: 5.3%
- Target Price: SGD12.50
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP):
- 2015E P/E: 15.4x, P/B: 1.0x, Yield: 6.5%
- Target Price: SGD1.25

Recommendations

BUY: Keppel Land (KPLD SP), CapitaLand (CAPL SP), YST Dairy (1431 HK), Biostime International (1112 HK)
HOLD: City Developments (CIT SP), CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP), Sinopec (386 HK), Lung Yen Life Services (5530 TW), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Far EasTone (4904 TT), Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)
REDUCE: Anton (3337 HK), Petro-king Oilfield (2178 HK)

Summary of Risks and Opportunities

Risks:
- Further home price declines in Singapore
- Weak crude prices impacting CNOOC Ltd
- Lower milk prices due to global supply and substitution risks
- Infrastructure investment slowdown due to tighter lending and anti-corruption measures
Opportunities:
- Potential for better-than-expected overseas execution for CIT
- Value in Reliance Industries due to negative news being priced in
- Diversified growth strategy for CIT