2025-06-10-Bernstein-耐克和阿迪达斯_宝胜-_5月的连续改善_14页_990kb

U.S. Apparel & Specialty Retail: Nike & Adidas China Performance Analysis

Overview

Despite ongoing tariff concerns, limited sales indicators for Nike and Adidas in China showed improvement in May compared to April. These brands constitute ~80% of Pou Sheng's China sales.

Key Findings

1. Retail Performance:

   • May YoY sales at Pou Sheng decreased -3.3%, with the ring-fenced monthly growth trend improving sequentially compared to April (-28%) and March (-18%).
   • May YoY was also better than the flat two-year growth rate (-8%) after weak Q1 performance.

2. Post-Pandemic Performance:

   • May sales hadn't fully recovered to pre-COVID levels by year-end 2021.

3. Manufacturing Dynamics:

   • Yue Yuen (the world's largest sportswear manufacturer) experienced muted manufacturing growth (+0.5%) due to order volatility persisting from tariff changes.
   • China's footwear exports fell -7% YoY in April.

4. Tariff Impact:

   • Tariff negotiations impact employment and demand, causing sustained order volatility.
   • While agility maintains competitiveness, lower visibility frustrates planning.

5. Investment Implications:

   • Rating: Outperform for Nike (NKE) and Adidas (ADS/ADDYY); price targets set at $85/NKE and €300/ADS.

Conclusion

While May constitutes improvement in trend versus April, China's sportswear market remains challenged by externalities including ongoing tariff-related uncertainty and cyclical volatility from regulatory shifts. Although positive signs exist, caution is required regarding imminent policy outcomes in the trade environment.