2025-05-20-Bernstein-全球轮胎欧盟对中国轮胎的调查得到证实_13页_230kb

European Automobiles & Components - Anti-Dumping Investigation Summary

Bernstein's research report analyzes an ongoing EU anti-dumping investigation into Chinese tyres, focusing on its implications for the automotive and components sector. The investigation, initiated in May 2025, follows a similar 2018 case that imposed tariffs, reducing Chinese imports and benefiting Tier 1 suppliers due to their localization.

Key Points of Anti-Dumping Investigation

• Timeline: Comments can be submitted in 37 days; investigation expected to conclude in 14 months with possible provisional measures.
• Historical Precedent: 2018 tariffs on truck and bus tyres halved Chinese imports; this investigation follows suit.
• Impact: Benefits Tier 1 companies like Michelin, Bridgestone, and Continental in a deglobalizing world, as they are less exposed to budget imports.

Company-Specific Analysis and Ratings

• Continental AG: Outperform rating, target price EUR 76.90. Valued via SOTP with emphasis on tyre business; upside risks include spin-off of automotive unit.
• Michelin: Outperform rating, target price EUR 33.57. Valued at 5.2x EV/EBITDA; risks include Chinese competition and EV adoption slowdown.
• Pirelli & C SpA: Market-Perform rating, target price EUR 6.17. Discounted valuation due to lower cash conversion and tariff risks.
• Bridgestone Corp: Outperform rating, target price JPY 6,090.00. Based on 12.9x EV/FCF; risks include technology turnaround failure and Chinese competition.

Investment Outlook and Risks

• Overall:Deglobalization supports Tier 1s; US tariff fears and Chinese access concerns may exacerbate the impact.
• Risks: Delays in investigations, tariff imposition uncertainties, and macroeconomic factors could affect performance.

This report underscores the potential for anti-dumping duties to reshape the tyre market, favoring established players with strong European presence.