2025-06-02-IMF-蒙古的财政乘数（英）_17页_1mb

Fiscal Multipliers in Mongolia Summary

Abstract

Fiscal policy plays a crucial role in Mongolia. Applying a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, this paper shows:

• Total spending and revenue multipliers are below 1 (0.3 and -0.1 respectively). This is attributed to import leakages.
• Capital spending multiplier (0.6) is larger and more persistent than current spending multiplier (0.2).
• Tax revenue multiplier peaks at -0.1 and non-tax revenue multiplier at -0.2, but both have limited short-term effects.

Literature Review

Empirical studies show fiscal multipliers vary based on country groups, institutional quality, economy openness, fiscal instruments, and economic conditions. Mongolia's high trade openness and mineral dependence likely dampen multipliers.

Methodology

The study uses a structural VAR model with data from 2000Q1 to 2023Q4. It analyzes total and revenue multipliers, as well as multipliers for current/capital spending and tax/non-tax revenue, comparing baseline and periods with specific events (IMF programs, elections, crises).

Results

Aggregate Fiscal Variables

• Government spending multiplier: peaks at 0.3, significant for up to 8 quarters.
• Revenue multiplier: peaks at -0.1, significant only for up to 2 quarters.
  IMF programs, crises, and elections significantly lower spending multipliers but not revenue multipliers.
  Impact of fiscal policy is broadly similar for total GDP and non-mining GDP.

Disaggregated Fiscal Variables

• Spending:
  • Current spending multiplier: peaks at 0.1.
  • Capital spending multiplier: peaks at 0.6, more effective and persistent.
  • Leakages (imports) are present for both.
• Revenue:
  • Both tax (-0.1) and non-tax (-0.2) multipliers are short-lived.
  • Assimlation of revenue multipliers is difficult due to lack of tax policy changes.

Conclusions

• Government spending multipliers are below 1 due to leakages, but capital spending multipliers are larger than current ones.
• Revenue multipliers have limited short-term impact.
• Fiscal multipliers in Mongolia are below average for developing countries.
• Lower tax multipliers suggest caution before cutting rates.
• Building capacity to collect more revenue from the budget and reducing dependence on volatile mineral revenues is essential for fiscal sustainability.